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題 名 | 應用空間自相關分析於人口老化時空變遷之研究=A Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis of Aging Distribution and Transition |
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作 者 | 謝純瑩; 周國屏; | 書刊名 | 人口學刊 |
卷 期 | 25 2002.12[民91.12] |
頁 次 | 頁91-119 |
分類號 | 542.15 |
關鍵詞 | 人口老化; 老年人口; 空間分佈; 空間自相關; Aging population; Elderly people; Spatial distribution; Spatial autocorrelation; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文主要採空間自相關空間分析理論,以台灣中部地區106個鄉鎮市區為研究單元,1980-2000年為時間軸,進行人口老化空間分布型態變遷之實證研究。 研究中由Moran I指數的檢驗,得知歷年人口高齡化及人口年輕化地區呈現空間聚集現象。藉各年度空間自相關係數圓的繪製及分析,聚集狀態皆為多核心,而各核心區範圍不斷擴大,聚集區與聚集區之間的距離逐年拉近,顯示聚集區有擴散效應存在。最末,採區域空間,自相關分析法了解聚集區的空間分布位置,發現老化未顯著的年輕化,聚集區三年度皆以台中市及其近郊為核心,聚集範圍略有擴大但強度,減弱。而老化顯著的高齡化人口聚集現象則較不明顯,主要分散於各縣市之偏遠丘陵山地或發展較為遲緩的農村地區。由於高齡化聚集區,個數日益增多,但強度趨弱,反應出高齡化人口的空間分布逐漸轉向,均勻、隨機的分布狀態。 隨著台灣地區老化現象普遍化,早期相關文獻中提及之老化聚集的情況已趨弱。在老化現象趨向均勻分布的背景下,老化顯著聚集區已不再是苦日被年輕化地區包圍成塊的弱勢區,相反地,老化未顯著的年輕化地區繼老化聚集現象之後,朝向被孤立的團狀聚集發展。 |
英文摘要 | This paper applies spatial autocorrelation statistics to analyze the spatial ifferentiation and transition of aging population during the period of 1980 and 2000 based on data col1ected from 106 administrative units in Central Taiwan. Moran’s I statistic is employed in this research to measure the spatial association of population aging. Results have shown that the distribution of aging exhibits a spatial concentration and expansion over time. In addition, spatial autocorrelation correlograms based on Z(I) ,statistic have also shown that the distance among spatial clusters tends to decrease during the study period. Finally, this study has identified the actual clusters according to local index of spatial autocorrelation. It suggests that most clusters of aging in the study area appear mainly in mountain or rural areas where slower development have occured, while clusters of younger population, on the other hand, concentrate mostly in urban areas. The fact that the number of clusters of aging population increases and the value of Z(I) statistic decreases throughout the study period suggests that distribution of aging population becomes less ,concentrated over space. It can be concluded that as population aging in Taiwan becomes more common in recent years, the aging population tends to be more evenly distributed over space. This finding is quite different from conclusions drawn in earlier studies. The distribution of the younger population, however, has shown a tendency towards spatial concentration within a few relatively isolated clusters. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。