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題名 | 臺灣地區儲蓄率下降原因之研究=An Inquiry into the Causes of the Declining Saving Rate in Taiwan |
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作者姓名(中文) | 林炳文; | 書刊名 | 東吳經濟商學學報 |
卷期 | 37 2002.06[民91.06] |
頁次 | 頁65-89 |
分類號 | 551.82 |
關鍵詞 | 前瞻性消費模型; 儲蓄率; 扶養比率; 投資率; 金融自由化; Forward-looking consumption models; Saving rate; Dependency ratio; Investment rate; Financial liberalization; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 新古典學派成長模型主張儲蓄率提高祇會提高短期經濟成長率,內生成長理論學者則倡言高儲蓄率與高投資率就能夠使經濟成長率一直持續在高檔上。本實證研究顯示在1%顯著水準下, (1) 平均每人國民所得成長率與儲蓄率之間存在顯著的正相關; (2) 儲蓄率與扶養比率間呈現顯著的負相關; (3) 消費者物價 膨脹率愈高,儲蓄率愈低; (4) 儲蓄率與利率自由化政策呈現顯著的負相關; (5) 社會福利之出佔GNP比率與儲蓄率問呈現顯著負相關; (6) 在實施金融自由化政策後,解除利率管制與銀行營運的一些限制,消費支出傾向提高,消費習性改變,塑膠貨幣使用量佔GNP比率與儲蓄率間呈現顯著負相關。雖然目前臺灣的國民儲蓄率仍屬高者,但近十年來儲蓄率逐年下降的趨勢,不得不令人擔憂。政府如何透過金融發展和外匯管理政策,將儲蓄導入投資行列,是臺灣在新世紀起始一項重要的政策課題。 |
英文摘要 | Neoclassical growth models suggest that an increase in the saving rate generate higher growth only in the short run. Models based on theories of endogenous growth predict that higher saving and investment rates can permanently raise growth rates. This paper reveals that when significant standard was 1 %,the saving rate in Taiwan would have (1)a significantly positive correlation with the growth rate of per capita national income, (2) a significantly negative correlation with the dependency ratio, (3) a significantly negative correlation with the consumer price inflation rate, (4) a significantly negative correlation with interest rate deregulation policies, (5) a significantly negative correlation with the ratio of the expenditures for social welfare against GNP, and (6) a significantly negative correlation with the ratio of the volume of plastic money against GNP. With the adoption of Taiwan government's financial liberalization, the propensity to consume raised, the consumption habits changed, and there are structure changes in savings functions. The declining saving rate in Taiwan in the last decade is noticeable. How to adopt useful financial development and foreign exchange management policies to induce savings to investment is a very important issue at the beginning of the new era. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。