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題 名 | 臺灣地區稻米供給對風險反應及風險管理之研究--模糊集合理論之應用=Supply Response to Risk and Risk Management for Taiwan Rice: An Application of Fuzzy Set Theory |
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作 者 | 劉祥熹; | 書刊名 | 農產運銷論叢 |
卷 期 | 4 1999.03[民88.03] |
頁 次 | 頁61-84 |
分類號 | 431.93 |
關鍵詞 | 稻米; 風險反應; 模糊集合理論; 風險管理; Rice; Risk response; Theory of fuzzy set; Risk management; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 農業在面對生產與價格不穩定的前提下,風險管理(risk management)顯得特別需要。 以往有關稻米供需模擬模式或供給反應之實證研究,風險的因素或涵義往往模糊不清或在測 定上被忽略了。這對稻米供給彈性測定以及未來作物面積或產量預測的分析將產生誤導,而 影響稻米產銷政策的擬定以及質執行上的效果。 基本上,本研究主要在為政府當局或農民提供有關稻米供給面風險反應之較具體情報, 包括供給的風險或價格彈性,以加農政當局或農嚴對風險管理之能力,及增進生產與行銷決 策之效率。 |
英文摘要 | Facing risk and uncertainty, risk management is essential for agricultural producers. The simulation models for Taiwan rice market have been built and estimated by previous study. However, risk variable is ignored in their model process. This would cause the estimation of supply elasticity and the prediction of rice acreage planted to be less meaningful. Basically, this study tries to estimate and detect the effects of supply response to risk for Taiwan rice. Hopefully, the empirical results would provide rice producers and government to do their policy-making more accurately. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。