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題 名 | 應用馬可夫鏈模式預測南仁山生態保護區地景變遷=Predicting Landscape Change with Markov Chain Model--A Case Study of Nanjenshan Ecological Reserve |
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作 者 | 陳永寬; 吳守從; | 書刊名 | 國立臺灣大學農學院實驗林研究報告 |
卷 期 | 15:4=234 2001.12[民90.12] |
頁 次 | 頁317-328 |
分類號 | 436.12 |
關鍵詞 | 地理資訊系統; 馬可夫鏈模式; 動態變化; GIS; Markov chain model; Dynamics; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 植物社會之空間分析、動態模擬與變化預測,有助於了解保護區植物社會演替,是保護生態體系完整所不可或缺之重要工作。本研究將南仁山區域1976、1989、1997三年度航空照片判釋、分類、數化、建檔後,以Shannon多樣性指數探討其地景生態系統變化,並藉由t測驗檢其間差異;次將分類結果與馬可夫鏈模式結合,推導不同時期植群變遷之理論趨勢值;進而預測南仁山生態保護區地景之最後穩定狀態。 研究結果顯示,南仁山生態保護區之地景生態系統已逐漸趨於穩定,最終將成一高鬱閉度森林植物社會。顯見該生態保護區之設立確有其功能。 |
英文摘要 | Vegetation spatial analysis, dynamics modeling and change predicting are essential for understanding vegetation succession, and are the major works for ecosystem conservation. In this study, land cover types and forest stands canopies at Nanjenshan ecological reserve were interpreted from aerial photos of 1976, 1989, and 1997. Those classified digital data were used to derive Shannon diversity index for mining the dynamics change of landscape ecosystem. T-test was applied to detect the landscape differentiability between every two periods. The theoretical tendencies over time periods were estimated with transitional probability matrix and equilibrium matrix of markov chain model. So that, the final stable landscape ecosystem at Nanjenshan ecological reserve was predicted. Results of this study show that the landscape at Nanjenshan ecological reserve is tending to a stable high-density forest vegettion society. That means the establishment of the reserve is effective. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。