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題 名 | 同時考慮R&D與市場需求不確定下之高科技產業投資方案評估分析=The Evaluation of Investment Project for High-Technology Industry under R&D and Market Demand Uncertainties |
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作 者 | 張傳章; 鍾炫城; 林秋發; | 書刊名 | 管理學報 |
卷 期 | 18:4 2001.12[民90.12] |
頁 次 | 頁589-616 |
分類號 | 555.9 |
關鍵詞 | 實質選擇權; 市場需求; 高科技產業; Real options; R&D; Market demand; High-technology industry; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 文獻上有關高科技產業R&D投資方案之研究,不是只考慮市場需求不確定性,就是僅考慮R&D之不確定性對投資方案價值之影響,本研究則以選擇權評價理論,整合了許多高科技產業現實生活中面臨之情況,如研發成功機率與時間的不確定性、管理者所面對的未來市場需求的不確定性以及評價模型不僅考慮企業本身的研發能力,而且還考量在研發成功之後,此高科技產品在市場上所面對的衝擊;而本文亦將同時考慮R&D語市場需求不確定下之投資方案價值,與僅考慮R&D不確定下的投資計畫價值和只單獨考慮市場需求不確定下之投資價值進行比較。再者,本研究中亦透過敏感度分析,試著了解所有參數變動時的影響程度與方向,以作為高科技公司投資評價的參考依據。 |
英文摘要 | Tremendous papers have analyzed the investment project of R&D for high-technology industry when either assuming the market demand is uncertain or the R&D itself is at risk. In this study, we use real option approach to construct a model, which can take market demand and R & D uncertainties into considerations simultaneously to analyze the investment project values for high-technology industry. We carry out simulations to detect how the key parameters, such as R&D and market demand volatility, affect the values of investment projects. Since our model is very general, it is able to provide more accurate project analysis than those existed in the literature. Hence, our model can help the financial managers of high-technology industry to make better project analysis for their firms. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。