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題名 | 不確定狀態下抉擇:為什麼說富人進天堂比駱駝穿過針眼還難=Choice under Uncertainty: Why it is Easier for a Camel to go Through the Eye of a Needle than for a Rich Man to Enter the Kingdom of God |
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作 者 | 李紓; | 書刊名 | 應用心理學報 |
卷期 | 8 2000.03[民89.03] |
頁次 | 頁19-29 |
分類號 | 171.457 |
關鍵詞 | 追求不確定; 規避不確定; 齊當別模型; Uncertainty seeking; Uncertainty aversion; Equate-to-differentiate model; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 信息匱乏是許多決策的普遍特點。藉助一表征系統來播述涉及了不確定狀態的選擇對象,人類的抉擇行為在此被模型為一種動態過程。即:人們有意將選擇對象在一可能結果維度上的差別人為地「齊同」掉,而將「辨別」抉擇對象在另一可能結果維度上的差別作為最終抉擇的依據。由「齊當別」決策模型導出的預測在本研究所設計的選擇反應與匹配反應中得以檢驗。實驗結果建議:如果實驗條件改變了人們的「齊當別」策略,規避不確定行為即可變為追求不確定行為,而追求不確定行為亦可變為規避不確定行為。 |
英文摘要 | Lack of information is a prevalent feature of most decisions. In the light of a representation system to describe options involving uncertainty, the choice behavior is thus modeled as a process in which the individual equates offered differences between options on one possible-outcome dimension(s), but differentiates another possible-outcome dimensional difference as the determinant of the final choice. The predications derived from the equate-to-differentiate way of thinking are empirically tested by posing both choice and matching tasks to subjects. The overall results suggest that, when people’s equate-to-differentiate strategy is caused to change by the experimental conditions applied, uncertainty aversion could turn out to be uncertainty seeking, and uncertainty seeking could turn out to be uncertainty aversion as well. |
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