頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 貿易自由化與國內、外畜禽市場價格長期均衡關係之研究=Trade Liberalization and Long-run Equilibrium Relationships between Domestic and International Livestock Prices |
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作 者 | 吳榮杰; 陳永琦; 劉祥熹; | 書刊名 | 農業經濟叢刊 |
卷 期 | 5:2 2000.06[民89.06] |
頁 次 | 頁223-251 |
分類號 | 483.1 |
關鍵詞 | 畜禽產品; 貿易自由化; 市場整合; 單根檢定; 共整合; 誤差修正模型; Livestock; Trade liberalization; Market integration; Unit-root test; Cointegration; Error-correction model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文旨在測試貿易自由化對我國與國際畜禽產品市場價格之長期均衡關係,以了解 貿易政策對國內外禽畜產品市場運作特色及價格間之相互關係與影響,並提供禽畜業有關問 題調對與改善之參考。文中以臺灣畜禽產業為研究對象,利用Engle and Granger(1987)所 提出的共整合理論(cointegration theory),採ADF、PP單根檢定法及Johansen-Juselius之最 大概似估計法檢定共整合關係,探討國內與國際畜禽產品長期間對因果關係或共整合情形而 為求實證之正確性,再透過Granger representation theorem對共整合模型加以修正,引入誤差 修正觀念,建構誤差修正模型(error correction model,簡稱ECM)作為實證應用模型。 實證結果顯示:(1)民國64-85年之國內與國際牛肉價格具有共整合關係,且其間具有反 饋效果,亦即民國64-85年之國內與國際牛肉價格具有長期之互動與調整關係。在短期方面, 民國64-85年之國際牛肉價格具有領先內牛肉價格變動之趨勢,但國內牛肉價格並無領先際 牛肉價格變動之趨勢。(2)民55-63年之國內與國際牛肉價格、國民55-85年之內與國際豬肉 價格以及民55-85年之國內與國際雞肉價格,均不具有共整合關係。 綜合而言,已開放自由貿易時期的國內牛肉市場與國際牛肉市場存在長期均衡的共整合 關係,亦即彼此價格呈現國際共移型態(international comovement pattern),而牛肉尚未開放 自由進口時期及具進口貿易障礙的豬肉及雞肉市場之國內、外價格均不具長期均衡關係,此 顯示貿易障礙的解除與禽畜產品市場共整合有正面的關聯,也隱喻貿易自由化對內外畜禽產 品市場整合具有正面影響,價格間的因果關係有確定的方向而促進空間的均衡,並使市場機 能發揮。 |
英文摘要 | The main objective of this study was to explore that relevance of trade liberalization and the market integration conditions between domestic and international livestock markets. By applying the theory of cointegration, we adopted Unit Roots Test and Cointegration Method to analyze the long-run cointegrating relationships between the livestock markets of Taiwan and the world. In order to increase the reliability of the empirical results, error-correction model (ECM) was adopted as the cointegration method. The empirical analyses revealed that although all of the livestock markets showed short-run relationships between the domestic and the international markets, and the international prices led the domestic prices, the long-run cointegrating relationship existed only between the domestic and the international beef markets. Since the beef market is the only livestock market exists on non-tariff trade barriers in Taiwan, that results imply that trade liberalization could help improving the long-run cointegrating relationship between domestic and international livestock markets. Also, it has positive influences upon the status of international market integration. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。