頁籤選單縮合
題名 | Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Taiwan and The US=輸出、輸入與經濟成長:臺灣與美國實證研究 |
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作者姓名(中文) | 方文碩; 張倉耀; 王冠閔; | 書刊名 | 逢甲學報 |
卷期 | 38 2000.12[民89.12] |
頁次 | 頁11-27 |
分類號 | 553 |
關鍵詞 | 輸出; 輸入; 經濟成長; 因果關係; 衝擊反應; 變異數分解; Exports; Imports; Economic growth; Granger-causality; Impulse responses; Variance decompositions; |
語文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 本文利用共整合與向量誤差修正模型實證探討臺灣與美國的輸出、輸入與國內生產毛額間的長期關係及短期動態調整過程,樣本期間自1971年第一季至1999年第四季。我們發現這三個變數,在兩個國家中,皆存在長期的均衡關係。若依據傳統分析,僅關注輸出與GDP兩個變數,則共整合關係便不甚顯著。因果關係檢定顯示,臺灣的GDP與輸出、GDP與輸入,及美國的GDP與輸出、輸出與輸入間皆存在雙向因果關係,臺灣的輸入單向顯響輸出,美國的GDP單向影響輸入;輸?造成經濟成長的單向因果關係並不存在。另外,使用誤差修正模型的衝擊反應函數與變異數分解觀察此三個變數的短期動穌調整過程,亦獲得類似的結論。 |
英文摘要 | This paper uses cointegration and vector error correction models to examine long-run relationships and short-run dynamics among exports, imports, and GDP for Taiwan and the United States over the period 1971:1 to 1999:4. We find that these three variables for each country are cointegrated. The results of the Granger-causality test based on the ECMs suggest bidirectional Granger causality (feedback) between GDP and exports, GDP and imports in Taiwan, and between GDP and exports, exports and imports in the US; unidirectional Granger-causality from imports to exports in Taiwan, and from GDP to imports for the US. The unidirectional causality running from exports to GDP (economic growth) does not hold for both countries. When we incrporate the impulse responses and variance decompositions into our VECM analysis, the results tell similar stories. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。