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題 名 | 決策嵌陷的成因分析=Causality Analysis of Decision Entrapment |
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作 者 | 林家五; 鄭伯壎; 蔡明宏; | 書刊名 | 管理學報 |
卷 期 | 17:3 2000.09[民89.09] |
頁 次 | 頁515-546 |
分類號 | 494.542 |
關鍵詞 | 嵌陷行為; 自我申辯; 前景理論; 確定效果; 實驗室研究; Entrapment behavior; Self-justification; Prospect theory; Certainty effect; Experimental approach; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究針對決革嵌陷行為的成因進行分析,探討決策者在面對一連串負面結果,為什麼仍然執著於先前的抉擇,投入更多的資源與心力,而導致越陷越深的理由。就理論而言,Staw的申辯理論採動機情緒的觀點,認為「自我申辯」是促成嵌陷行為發生的主要機制;Kahneman 典Tversky 的前景理論則採訊息處理的觀點,主張「確定效果」的作用會引發知覺價值扭曲,這才是導致在嵌陷行為發 生的主因。本研究嘗試統合此二理論的想法,來解釋嵌陷行為的發生。研究採實驗室研究的方式,以中級以上主管為受試對象,並且用電腦模擬組織決策情境, 操弄個人責任的高低與實行成果的成敗兩變項,結果發現,企業組織中管理者的決策確實有嵌陷行為的發生,但是只有前景理論的「確定效果」獲得證實。申辯理論中的「自我申辯」效果並不被支持。最後,研究者並提出對缺陷行為的預防措施,以及發生嵌陷行為之後的修正之道。 |
英文摘要 | "Decision entrapment" refers to the phenomenon that decision-makers commit to the negative or failure choices, and tend to throw more resources in some projects that seem to fail certainly. We try to combine two contradictory viewpoints, self-justification vs. information-processing perspectives, to clarify the causality of decision entrapment through experimental approach. Staw suggests that the emotional “self-justification" is the major mechanism of decision entrapment. Adopting the information-processing perspective, Kahneman & Tversky propose that “certainty effect" bring about perception distortion, which is the main cause of entrapment behavior. We used computer programs to simulate a decision-making scenario, and manipulated “personal responsibility" and "project output" variables. The subjects are middle-leveled (and above) managers from 5 companies, and were asked to play the role of general managers in the simulated task. The result doesn't support the self-justification perspective, but verifies certainty effect of prospect theory. We then propose some management techniques to prevent and correct entrapment behavior. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。