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題 名 | 臺灣地區合板供需與預測之計量分析=Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Plywood in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 汪大雄; 吳萬益; | 書刊名 | 臺灣林業科學 |
卷 期 | 15:3 2000.09[民89.09] |
頁 次 | 頁379-390 |
分類號 | 474.5 |
關鍵詞 | 計量模型; 合板供需; 模型預測; Econometric model; Plywood demand and supply; Model forecast; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 合板為台灣重要之木基民生工業,舉凡在建築,裝潢和家俱各方面, 合板和人們之生活均有密切關係。台灣合板業之發展歷史甚早,早期是以內銷為 主,後來則逐以外銷為大宗。台灣合板業在其發展過程中曾一度高居在台灣外銷 實績榜上之第三位。但自1980以降,因外受東南亞若干原木輸出國先後頒佈禁 止或減少原木出口政策之影響,使得原料之國外取得日益困難,加上國內勞動力 之短缺,工資之高漲及進口合板之低價競爭,使得台灣合板工業之優勢條件降 低,造成外銷呈現逐年減少和國際市場佔有率之逐年喪失。資料顯示,雖然近年 來台灣地區之合板工業外銷量有逐年下降之趨勢,但合板之消費量卻成穩定之成 長,顯示出台灣民眾對合板之需求程度與日俱增。本研究使用計量經濟模型,依 據過去數十年之時間序列資料,進行台灣地區合板供給與需求整體之模擬分析, 以探討影響供給或需求之相關因子暨其相互關係,並對1999-2008年之合板供給 與需求進行模擬預測以供業者與政府之參考。研究結果顯示在1999-2008年,台 灣合板之國內消費量和合板進口量維持上升之趨勢,但合板之生產量和出口量卻 有逐年下降趨勢。至2003年台灣合板之用材需求量約為2.396×106 m3,在 2008 年則上升至約2.968×106 m3。以1998年之需求量為基準,至2008年,台灣合板 用材總需求是以年成長率平均約4.8%之速度成長。 |
英文摘要 | Plywood is one of the most important wood-based industries in Taiwan. Owing to the broad use of plywood in building, architecture, decoration, and furniture, it is obvious that plywood plays an important role in humans' livelihoods in Taiwan. The development of the plywood industry in Taiwan can be traced back to the early 1940s. At that time, plywood was produced for domestic use only. During the development of the plywood industry in Taiwan, most plywood products were used for exportation, and plywood once ranked as the 3rd most important industry for exportation in Taiwan. However, because of the policy of banning log exportation adopted by some Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia in the 1980s, and the increase in local labor costs, the benefits enjoyed by plywood firms in Taiwan in competition for plywood exportation have gradually diminished, and the industry has lost its global market share in plywood accordingly. Time series data show that during the past 4 decades, while the exportation of plywood in Taiwan, in the long run, has decreased, the demand for plywood has increased. In this study, given an annual time series from 1961 to 1998 in Taiwan, an econometric model is established to investigate the influential factors affecting the demand/supply of plywood, and a forecast for the period of 1999-2008 on the demand/supply of plywood in Taiwan is made which can be used as a reference by plywood firms and governmental agencies in Taiwan. This study shows, in the period 1999-2008, an increase in domestic plywood consumption and plywood imports and a decrease in domestic plywood production and plywood exports. The total demand for plywood in Taiwan is estimated to be about 2.396 × 106 m3 in 2003, and 2.968 × 106 m3 in 2008. Based on the total demand for plywood in 1998, the mean annual growth Rate in the total demand for plywood in Taiwan in 1999-2008 is estimated to be about 4.8%. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。