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題名 | Analysis of the Price Response of Taiwan Tuna Purse Seine Fishery in the Frozen Tuna Raw Material Market in Thailand=臺灣鰹鮪圍網產業泰國鮪罐原料市場價格反應之分析 |
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作者 | 孫金華; 謝銘嘉; Sun, Chin-hwa; Hsieh, Ming-chia; |
期刊 | 臺灣水產學會刊 |
出版日期 | 20000300 |
卷期 | 27:1 2000.03[民89.03] |
頁次 | 頁45-58 |
分類號 | 439.24 |
語文 | eng |
關鍵詞 | 鰹鮪圍網產業; Granger因果關係檢定; 轉換函數模型; 價格反應彈性; 總收益反應彈性; Tuna purse seine fishery; Granger causality test; Transfer function model; Price flexibility; Revenue flexibility; |
中文摘要 | 本文針對臺灣鰹鮪圍網產業冷凍鮪魚出口至泰國鮪罐原料市場,分析價格受卸魚量影響之反應函數。藉由Granger因果關係檢定式檢定價量間之因果關係,結果顯示當期價格受到前期價格與卸魚量的影響,但反向關係不顯著。而依此價格受卸魚量影響之關係所建立之月別價格轉換函數模型,在長期下卸貨量與價格之間呈現負相關,並且由估計模型模擬之月別價格及總收益反應彈性在每年的4、5月淡漁期開始時達到最低,分別約-0.55及0.45;而在10、11月淡漁期結束時,價格及總收益反應彈性值最高、分別約為-0.05及0.95。藉由動態模擬的結果,若能取得泰國鮪罐業者每公噸高於平均模擬卸魚量加權價格之長期契約,則鰹鮪圍網業者將有更多獲利空間。而且若圍網業者及貿易商能分散市場,且靈活調整冷凍運搬船之船期,維持在泰國之每月卸魚量,則將得到更有利的長期均衡價位。 |
英文摘要 | This paper analyzes the price response for frozen tuna caught by the tuna purse seine fishery in Taiwan and exported to the cannery market in Thailand. Through the use of the Granger Causality test, we show that quantity landings statistically determined market prices. A transfer function model is specified accordingly and the resulting estimates show a negative long-term relationship between quantities and prices. The price and revenue flexibilities reach their lowest levels when landings are high during April and May, with levels of about –0.55 and 0.45, respectively. The highest flexibilities are reached when landings are low during October to December, when levels are about –0.05 and 0.95, respectively. Based upon the dynamic simulation, it may be profitable to sign a long-term sale contract with the processor in Thailand as long as their offer is higher than the simulated landings-weighted average monthly price. If fishermen and traders could avoid fluctuations in landing, it will be more profitable for the trading and fishing companies if they can diversify their sale market and coordinate their freezer ship schedules to create a steady monthly landings in Thailand that in turn will receive a higher price from the raw tuna cannery market in Thailand. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。