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題 名 | 我國公益彩券獎金結構之分析=On the Term in Prize Structure of Taiwan's Instant Lottery |
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作 者 | 劉代洋; 楊志唯; | 書刊名 | 管理與系統 |
卷 期 | 8:3 2001.07[民90.07] |
頁 次 | 頁335-348 |
分類號 | 564.38 |
關鍵詞 | 公益彩券; 刮刮樂; 獎金結構; 中獎機率; 彩券銷售量; Lottery; Prize structure; The expected value; The probability of winning a prize; The inequality of the prize distribution; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 公益彩券發行至今已有六期的時間,但至第四期起,公益彩券的銷售已不如前三期的熱賣情況,甚至有發生彩券滯銷的情形。推究其原因,主要是因為公益彩券第四期後大幅修改獎金結構,將原來中獎機率40%的公益彩券降至20%,進而造成民眾購買意願的下降。所以獎金結構的設計良窳成為最直接影響彩券銷售的因素。因此,本研究針對公益彩券獎金結構部分,研究內容包含『獎金結構之一般性分析』、『立即獎、幸運獎獎金結構模擬分析』、『立即獎與幸運獎總獎金比例分析』。研究中透過問卷收集相關資料,並以敘述性統計量、相關分析、迴歸分析等方法作各相關分析。研究中發現:受訪者對獎金結構的偏好普遍存在下列五個趨勢(偏好程度依序遞減):(1) 傾向高中獎機率;(2) 中獎機率固定下,傾向高額獎項的追求;(3) 對『極大』獎額的渴望;(4) 相對於小獎、大獎,受訪者較漠視中等獎項數量及金額;(5) 立即獎、幸運獎總獎金比例較偏好4:1。最後透過上述五個偏好趨勢,模擬出多份民眾真正欲求的公益彩券獎金結構,提供相關單位制訂獎金結構之參考,以達彩券銷售量極大化的目的。 |
英文摘要 | The purpose of this paper is to design an appropriate prize structure for the revenue-maximization of the Instant Lottery in Taiwan. The adoption of instant lottery on December 1 of last year basically comes after the 921 earthquake. The instant tickets are amazingly attractive and cause huge attention to the public for the first four issues as expected. However, the sales decrease gradually since the fifth issue due to the increase in the higher prizes in exchange for the probability of winning a prize reduced from 40% to 20% from the fourth issue on. Therefore, a redesign of prize structure must be carried out in order to resume the sale of the instant tickets to their original level in the beginning period. By designing an appropriate prize structure covering three major contents, i.e., the expected value, the probability of winning a prize, and the inequality of the prize distribution, through consumers' perspectives. The consumer's preference is determined by a data set gathered by a systematic stratified sampling method in the Taipei Metropolitan area. The survey results mainly indicate that consumers prefer the higher the probability of winning a prize the better as the most important factor, followed by the highest prize, more small prizes, and the ratio of prize for instant game to the prize for lucky draw. Different combinations of these three major contents make up lots of simulations and an appropriate prize structure then be generated. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。