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題 名 | 銀行放款對我國所得及利率影響之探討=Study of the Influence of Bank Loan to GDP and Market Interest Rate in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 高偉娟; 馮惠珊; | 書刊名 | 亞太社會科技學報 |
卷 期 | 4:1 2004.09[民93.09] |
頁 次 | 頁49-67 |
分類號 | 562.33 |
關鍵詞 | 國內生產毛額; 銀行放款; 排擠效果; Gross domestic product; GDP; Bank loan; Crowding-out effect; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 銀行放款佔商業銀行資產的比重最大,也是銀行最主要的收入來源。對總體經濟而言,銀行放款總額的增減,會改變一國的貨幣供給,會影響到私人的投資行為,進而對一國之利率、物價與所得水準,皆會受到影響。 由於國內相關文獻資料,皆未探討到銀行放款對所得及利率兩方面的影響,以及其可能產生之排擠效果,故本文除以IS—LM模型分析銀行放款的變化對所得及利率之影響外,並採用國內銀行最近二十年來的銀行放款總額、市場利率與國內生產毛額(GDP)之實際資料,利用統計軟體EXCEL、MINITAB以變異數分析、迴歸分析及調整後之判定係數來實証檢驗其相關性。最後檢驗結果皆發現理論與實証一致;銀行放款總額與國內生產毛額(GDP)成正比,銀行放款總額與利率成反比。在現今工商業發達但經濟有不景氣跡象之環境中,政府採用放寬銀行放款政策,不失為一種良好的振興、復甦方案。期盼本文之研究成果,能帶給政府、銀行及企業界一項很好的參考價值。 |
英文摘要 | Bank loan takes the largest percentage of a commercial bank’s assets. It is the major income resource of the bank as well. From the macro-economical point of view, changes of the total amount of the bank loan in a country will affect the money supplies of that country, then it will affect the personal investment, furthermore it will have impact on the level of interest rate, price level and gross domestic product (GDP). The research paper is using the IS-LM model to analyze the influence of the bank loan to the economy in Taiwan. The valuable data for the total amount of bank loans in Taiwan of the last two decades, as well as the market interest rate and GDP are adopted. The statistic application software EXCEL and MINTAB are used. Variance analysis, regression analysis, and the adjusted determination coefficient are sued to examine their correlation. The compatible results between theoretical approach and practical data have been obtained. The total amount of bank loan does proportional to the GDP, and inversely proportional to the market interest rate. In a well-developed industrial and commercial environment, while the shadow of economical recession is emerging, a good policy to stimulate the economics is to release the restriction of the bank loan. Hopefully the results of this research will provide a good reference for the policy decision markers in the government. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。