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題名 | 年齡、時期、人口年輪與臺灣的貧窮率=Age, Period, Cohort and the Poverty Rates in Taiwan |
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作者 | 呂朝賢; 王德睦; 王仕圖; | 書刊名 | 人口學刊 |
卷期 | 20 1999.10[民88.10] |
頁次 | 頁125-138 |
分類號 | 548.16 |
關鍵詞 | 貧窮率; 年齡、時期與人口年輪的分析模型; 生命週期; 人口年輪; 家戶型態; Poverty rate; Age-period-cohort model; Life cycle; Age cohort; Family types; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 不同的生命週期階段與家庭型態,其貧窮率會有所不同;而不同人口年輪的貧窮率,也會因為人口年輪的人口量差異而影響貧窮率。本文採用人口學研究中有關年齡、時期與人口年輪的分析模型(Age-Period-Cohort Model)來處理歷年來不同家庭型態的貧窮決定因素。 在人口年輪的效果部分,男性家戶戶長的人口年輪中,僅出生於1938至1947年的兩個人口年輪的貧窮率與平均水準有顯著的差異,此可能為戰爭效應的影響。女性家戶戶長雖有女性貧窮化的現象,唯不甚明顯。時期效果方面,男性家戶戶長的貧窮率呈先降後升再降的不穩定狀態,台灣的平均所得在研究期間內持續上升,而所得不均度也持續上升,兩力量的折衝使時期別效果時升時降。對女性家戶戶長而言,貧窮率亦呈現不穩定的狀態,可能因為女性戶長多集中在低所得工作,總體經濟變遷對她們影響較小。 就年齡效果而言,大致上與理論預期相仿。男性戶長在35至44歲以及60歲以上的家庭有較高的貧窮率.30歲以下的男性戶長,由於父母仍多處於工作年齡,因此貧窮率較 低。45-54歲的男性戶長有較低的貧窮率,與子女已經成長,及戶長的薪資較前期為高所致。女性家戶戶長和男性家戶戶長的趨勢一致。與男性家戶戶長不同者,女性家戶戶長年齡在55-59歲者的貧窮機會較高,顯示女性的貧窮機會可能比男性提早來臨。 |
英文摘要 | Poverty rates are known to differ over the stages of life cyc1e and by family types. Poverty rates of cohorts are also known to be affected by their sizes. This paper uses a demographic model, the Age-Period-Cohort model to assess factors affecting poverty rates among different family types. We found that in the cohort effect on poverty rates among different family types, only male households wh□se heads were born in the 1938-1947 period showed significant differences both in terms of poverty rate and the means poverty level. This could be due to the effect of Wor1d War II. Although some feminization of poverty was observed, no significant difference was found. In the period effect on poverty rates among different family types, we found an unstable S shape curve among male heads, a decline in rates first followed by an increase only to be followed by further dec1ine later. This seems to indicate that a continuing ascendant in average income and in income inequality during the study period were responsible for the unstable result. The same was also true among female heads. However, this was due to the fact that female heads tended to work in low wages sectors. The changes in macro economic conditions did little improve the income of female heads. In the age effect on poverty rates among different family types, we found male headed households whose heads were 35-44 years old or 60 years old and elder tended to show higher poverty rates. In those same households whose members age 30 or under tended to have lower poverty rates than others, due to the fact that most of their parents were in working age; and those members age were 45-54 years old also showed lower poverty rates due to the fact that their children had grown and their incomes were higher than previous period. The same trends held true for female heads with the exception for those members age 55-59 years old who showed higher poverty rates. This showed that female heads would enter poverty ear1y than their male counterparts. |
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