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題 名 | 年洪水模式之序率研究=Stochastic Modeling of Annual Storm-Floods |
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作 者 | 林國峰; 吳幸璋; 王育民; | 書刊名 | 中國土木水利工程學刊 |
卷 期 | 11:3 1999.09[民88.09] |
頁 次 | 頁521-528 |
分類號 | 443.42 |
關鍵詞 | 年暴雨--洪水; 序率瞬時單位歷線; 序率流量延時曲線; Annual storm-flood; Stochastic instantaneous unit hydrograph; Stochastic flow-duration curves; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文提出一種新的方式對年洪水作序率模擬。文中首先對觀測的年暴雨事件進行 分析,以決定年暴雨序率歷程之統計特性,進而建立代表年暴雨一年洪水歷程的序率瞬時單 位歷線。接著以蒙地卡羅法模擬年暴雨序率歷程,其與序率瞬時單位歷線摺積得年洪水。最 後本文根據模擬出之年洪水,探討了最大洪峰流量與最大洪峰到達時間之統計特性,亦建構 了年洪水的序率流量延時曲線。研究結果顯示,本文所提之序率瞬時單位曆線在年暴雨一年 洪水的模擬應用上,能良好地保持歷史統計特性。此外,本文建構之年洪水的序率流量延時 曲線,可提供不同重現期距的流量延時曲線 |
英文摘要 | In this paper, a new methodology is proposed to simulate annual storm-floods. First, the observed annual storms are analyzed to determine their statistical properties. A new stochastic instantaneous unit hydrograph is developed to represent the annual storm-flood process. Then the corresponding annual flood realizations are obtained by convoluting the proposed stochastic instantaneous unit hydrograph with the annual storm realizations which are simulated using the Monte Carlo method. Finally, base on the annual flood realizations the statistical characteristics of the peak discharge and the time to peak are investigated. The stochastic flow-duration cruves of the annual flood are also constructed. The results show that the simulated annual floods can preserve the histocal properties. Furthermore, the constructed stochastic flow-duration curves of the annual flood can provide flow-duration curves of different return periods. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。