頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 電力經濟領先指標之研究=A Study of Leading Indicator for Electricity Economics |
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作 者 | 林建甫; 胡孝年; 洪紹平; 洪育民; | 書刊名 | 台電工程月刊 |
卷 期 | 605 1999.01[民88.01] |
頁 次 | 頁69-78 |
分類號 | 575.16 |
關鍵詞 | 領先指標; 自我迴歸遞延時差模型; 由繁化簡; 對策信號; Leading indicators; Autoregressive distributed lags model; From general to simple; Signals; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究的目的是探討不同行業的電力需求,據以構建對策信號及電力經濟領先指 標。研究步驟首先蒐集相關資料,再針對各行業不同之用電特性,利用一般化的自我迴歸遞 延時差模型與轉換函數模型,分別建立各行業之用電模式。至於研究方法則採用倫敦政經學 派,由繁化簡的模型變數選取方式,並使用 Eviews 計量套裝軟體建立模型分析與預測的操 作架構。研究結果所得之電力經濟領先指標可用以製作景氣對策信號,瞭解未來電力供需概 況,俾使相關單位未雨綢繆,預為之計。 |
英文摘要 | The purposes of this research include analysis of power demand for different industries in Taiwan and construction of policy signals and leading indicators based on the analytical results. Firstly, power consuming characteristics and related data for different industries was collected. Then, the autoregressive distributed lag model together with the transfer function was used to design the specific power demand functions for forecasting. The theory of "from general to simple" proposed by the London School of Economics was followed for the model selection criteria and the econometric software called "Eviews" was employed to build the complete working procedure and framework for analysis and forecast. The analytical results from this study were expected to provide useful information for constructing leading indicators and policy signals. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。