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題 名 | 民國八十七年颱風調查報告--強烈颱風瑞伯(9810)=Report on Typhoon Zeb of 1998 |
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作 者 | 劉復誠; | 書刊名 | 氣象學報 |
卷 期 | 42:4 1998.12[民87.12] |
頁 次 | 頁356-403 |
分類號 | 328.55 |
關鍵詞 | 颱風; 氣壓; 降雨量分佈; 西風帶; 路徑預報; Typhoon; Pressure; Distribution of rainfall; Westerlies; Track forecast; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文之主要目的在探討民國87年第4個侵台颱風瑞伯(Zeb)的發生經過、路徑、強 度變化、侵台期間的氣壓、風速、降雨量分佈及波浪高低變化,以及各種主、客觀颱風路徑 預報的誤差校驗分析,最後就瑞伯颱風侵台後台灣各地區之災情予以統計說明。瑞伯颱風在 菲律賓東方海面形成,隨即由緩慢至加速的向西北再轉北方向朝台灣接近,其中心於 10 月 15 日至 16 日上午從台渲東方外海約 60 至 100 公里以偏北方向進行前影響台灣,其中心 並未直接登陸本島。就瑞伯颱風侵台期間的氣壓及風雨分析,最低氣壓及最大風力均出現在 最接近颱風中心附近的成功及彭佳嶼, 分別為 974 hPa 及 55m/s; 就各地區風力分佈比較 ,以北部、東北部及東部之風力最大,最大陣風高達 16 級; 降雨量方面,亦以迎風面約北 部、東北部及東部雨量 (尤其山區 ) 最多,高達 700 公厘以上,背風面的中南部較少。至 於波浪方面, 苗栗後龍國光平台站曾於 10 月 16 日 5 時觀測到 7.54 公尺的示性波高 (H1Z3)。 由於瑞伯颱風之暴風雨範圍遍及全省, 故除造成共 28 人死亡、10 人失蹤及 27 人輕重傷外,農業、水利、電力及交通總損失高達新台幣 51 億 6 千萬元以上。 就颱風路 徑預報誤差校驗比較, 中央氣象局 24 小時及 48 小時平均預報誤差分別為 187 公里及 387 公里,而 CWBTFS/PE 模式之 24 小時及 48 小時平均路徑預報誤差僅為 109 公里,顯 示對此颱風之路徑預報表現尚佳。 |
英文摘要 | This article mainly deals with typhoon Zeb about its evolution, movement, and the rainfall and central pressure observed over Taiwan area. Discussions on the verifications of various subjective and objective track forecasts are also included. Typhoon Zeb formed over the ocean of the Philippine islands and then moved northwestward toward Taiwan. The center did not landover Taiwan but passed offshore about 60 to 100 km of eastern Taiwan and later on moved northeast toward Japan, and finally dissipated as a tropical depression over Japan islands. The observations showed that there were heavy rainfall over the northern, northeastern and eastern parts of Taiwan when typhoon Zeb were nearby. Owing to the effects of the rainbands within the northeast quadrant of typhoon zeb and the topography of Taiwan, the maximum accumulated rainfall of 921mm was observed at the Chutzehu station during the period of Zeb's invasion. In addition, a peak gust of 55m / s was observed at the Lanyu station and a minimum pressure of 974 hPa was observed at the Chengkung station. The total losses estimated about US$16 million. To all subjective track forecasts for typhoon Zeb done by the Central Weather Bureau, the averaged 24hr track forecast error is 187km and the averaged 48hr track forecast error is 387km. Among all track forecasts available at CWB, the CWB TFS / PE model provided the best track forecast for typhoon Zeb. The forecast track errors are only l09km for 24hr and 109km for 48hr. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。