頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 開工前產糖率預測=Prediction of Sugar Yield Percentage before Milling |
---|---|
作 者 | 翁銅河; 李松伍; 張翊袖; | 書刊名 | 臺灣糖業研究所研究彙報 |
卷 期 | 164 1999.06[民88.06] |
頁 次 | 頁15-29 |
分類號 | 434.716 |
關鍵詞 | 產糖率; 複線性迴歸模式; 夾雜物%; 甘蔗; Prediction; Percent of sugar yield; ESG%; Multiple linear regression model; Trash% cane; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 開工前產糖率以複線性迴歸模式預測,以壓搾日數,停壓日數及夾雜物%作為參數,驗證最近5年期公司產糖率預測值與實績值(括弧內為實績值)結果比較如下:81/82年期為9.26%(9.31%),82/83年期為9.45%(9.31%),83/84年期為9.20%(9.24%),84/85年期為9.34%(9.84%),85/86年期為9.46%(9.42%),產糖率預估與實績值誤差分別為0.05%,0.14%,0.04%,0.50%,0.04%;僅84/85年期預估誤差較大,其原因為84╱85年期收穫期間日夜溫差高出16年期平均日夜溫差2.5℃所致。其餘4年期預測與實績誤差值在0.04%-0.14%。糖廠產糖率以81/82-83/84年期等3年期作驗證,該3年期預測值誤差≦0.2%以下,約佔預測年期之預估糖廠27%-57%,顯示正常氣侯年期以上述方法預測公司及糖廠產糖率預測值與實績值頗接近。 |
英文摘要 | A multiple linear regression model was used to predict the percentage of commercial sugar (POCS) about one month prior to milling in sugar factories. Crush period, break time, and trash content were used as variables. For five consecutive years (1992/93-1996/97) the Taiwan Sugar Corporation's model closely predicted actual POCS values before milling: The value in parenthesis is the actual value—9.26% (9.31%), 9.45% (9.31%), 9.20% (9.24%), 9.34% (9.84%), 9.46% (9.42%); the biases from actual POCS were 0.05%, 0.14%, 0.04%, 0.50%, 0.04%. The range of bias was 0.04%-0.14%, except 1995/96. The prediction gave a higher bias in 1995/96, during which day and night temperature differences during the harvest period were 2.5℃ higher than the mean of the previous 16 crop years. The biases verification in three milled seasons (1992/93-1994/95) in 18-21 sugar factories ranged from 25% to 57%. The model was useful for the prediction of POCS in a crop year with normal weather. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。