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題名 | 應用灰色預測與灰色聚類於航空公司航線運量預測與形態設計=Applying Grey Forecasting and Grey Clustering to Predict Airline Traffic and Design Airline Network Shape |
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作者 | 許巧鶯; 溫裕弘; | 書刊名 | 模糊系統學刊 |
卷期 | 4:2 1998.12[民87.12] |
頁次 | 頁51-62 |
分類號 | 557.94 |
關鍵詞 | 灰色預測; 灰色聚類; 航線運量預測; 航線網路形態設計; Grey forecasting; Grey clustering; Airline traffic forecast; Airline network shape design; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 航線運量預測與航線網路形態( airline network shape )設計為航空公司前期 航線規劃之基礎。在航空運量預測之研究上,由於 70 年代航空運量隨全球經濟發展大幅成 長,造成航空運量突增,面臨可取得且具分析價值之運量資料不足。另一方面,航空公司在 網路設計上則面臨降低營運成本與提高服務水準之權衡取捨,以及處理不確定性參數環境, 故尚存有極大之探討空間。 灰色理論( grey theory )本質上所須數據量少,且具適用於 處理不確定性參數之特性,故本研究以一航空公司客運網路為對象,延伸、應用灰色預測模 式與灰色聚類方法,結合航線運量預測進行航線網路形態設計。最後,並以一我國國籍航空 公司為對象,進行範例分析。研究結果顯示,預測模式之運量預測結果對運量變化的擬合與 未來發展的動態捕捉,以及配合航線運量變動之航線網路形態設計結果驗證確為可行,且提 供較高之決策彈性。 |
英文摘要 | Air traffic forecast and airline network shape design are prerequisite to airlines' route planning. Since the 1970s, the international air travel market has grown in parallel with prevailing economic conditions. However, the number of available observations is usually not large and it is usually difficult to collect a large quantity of data poins with good statistical distribution to formulate the conventional statistical demand models. On the other hand, when airlines design their air network shape, both air carriers' and passengers' concerns must be taken into consideration. In contrast to conventional methods, grey theory is a convenient mathematical device of which to solve problems containing uncertainty and indetermination. This paper illustrates two models to forecast airline traffic and to design an airline network shape by applying grey forecasting and grey clustering. Finally, a case study on an airline's passenger network shape design is provided to illustrate the application of the models and results. The results verify that the models are practicable, and provide higher flexibility on decision-making for airlines. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。