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題 名 | 灰色電力負載預測=The Load Forecast Base on Grey Theory |
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作 者 | 蘇玉生; 蔡明堂; 詹舜宇; | 書刊名 | 和春學報 |
卷 期 | 6 1999.07[民88.07] |
頁 次 | 頁271-277 |
分類號 | 448.115 |
關鍵詞 | 電力負載預測; 灰色理論; 電力系統; Grey theory; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文提出以灰色理論(Grey Theory) 應用於電力系統長期預測,在本文 中以灰色理論建模方式尋求電力成長之預測,此方法是利用歷史電力的需量資 料,經由數據處理、累加生成,將資料建立成一灰微分方程式,即是預測過程中 所建立的灰色模型(Grey Model ,GM)。最後本文將所提出灰色預測理論實際應用 於台電公司年度負載系統,分析及比較系統尖峰用電,評估系統備用容量之大 小,提供電力工程人員一個簡單、迅速及準確之負載預測的工具。 |
英文摘要 | An application in long-term load forcasting based upon Grey Theory is proposed in this study. TheGrey modelling G(1,1) is developed to fulfil the load forcasting. With historical demand data, a greydifferential equation is setup through the data processing and accumulating generation. In other words,the Grey Model (GM), as is setup through forecasting process, can be represented by a one-orderdifferential equation. Finally, the proposed grey-theory-based load forcasting model is employed to verifythe annual load data of Tai-Power Company. It is seen that the forcasted results are in good agreementwith the practical peak demand. The proposed model can obviously provide a good and simple tools forpower engineer to forcast the power demand accurately and quickly. By this way, the amount of systemreserve can also be estimated in advance and some proper actions can be made to cope with the criticalconditions. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。