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題名 | 農業之乾旱缺水損失經濟分析--以明德水庫灌區水稻為例=Economic Loss Analysis for Agriculture during Drought Period--A Case Study for Rice at the Irrigated Area of Min-Der Reservoir |
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作 者 | 廖朝軒; 朱壽銓; 黃文龍; 洪英瑋; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 44:4 1998.12[民87.12] |
頁次 | 頁36-51 |
分類號 | 434.287 |
關鍵詞 | 乾旱; 經濟損失; 作物水分生產函數; 缺水灌溉; 缺水; Drought; Economic loss; Crop-water production function; Inadequate irrigation; Water shortfall; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 乾旱相對於洪水來說,發展緩慢,歷時較長,其開始與結束現象較不明顯,但其 災害影響範圍較廣泛,俗語說:「水災一條線,旱災一大片」,故其會帶來較大範圍之經濟損 失。而有關乾旱期農業缺水損失之研究成果較少,故本文試圖建立乾旱缺水時期農業缺水損 失經濟函數,首先嘗試利用條件估價法,透過假設市場之建立及考慮農業用水現況設計調查 問卷,調查內容包括六大項目:(一)基本資料;(二)用水狀況;(三)保險制度;(四)購水制度 ;(五)懲罰制度及(六)限水制度,另外自農業生產及用水量關係,分別利用全生育期作物水 分生產函數之Hanks模式、生育階段作物水分生產函數之Blank連加模式及Jensen連乘模 式推導農業缺水經濟損失理論函數;並以明德水庫水稻灌區進行實例說明,其中條件估價法 所獲結果之趨勢雖合理但損失值偏低且較分散;而理論農業缺水經濟損失函數中Blank連加 模式及Jensen連乘模式之作物水分短缺敏感因子則參考茆智等人在1988至1993年試驗所 獲之結果,如係利用Blank連加模式計算則所獲之各月份農業缺水經濟損失值較Jensen連 乘模式所計算值為高;而整個二期作之理論農業損失則以Blank連加模式計算所獲之值為最 高,Jensen連乘模式所獲之值次之,Hanks全生育期作物水分生產函數所獲之值最低。另外 本研究也發現勢能蒸發散量越大,則作物水分短缺敏感因子亦越大,則在相同缺水率下的農 業經濟損失亦越大。 |
英文摘要 | The impacts of drought differ from those of flood in four essential characteristics slow development, long duration, difficult in determining onset and end time, and spatial coverage. Because of these, droughts may cause large and diverse economic losses. Until now, there is a little research being found in investigating agricultural losses due to droughts. The purpose of this study is to derive economic loss functions for agricultural loss due to water shortfall which can be used for water management during drought period. Firstly, the contingent valuation is conducted using a face- to-face survey. The survey contains questions focusing on six aspects: 1)basic information, 2)currentwater use situation, 3)insurance, 4)purchase system, 5)punitive tariffs, and 6)water rationing policy. Secondly, crop-water production functions are being used in developing theoretical economic losses for agriculture during drought period. In the analysis, both whole growth period production function(Hanks model) and growth stage-wise function(Blank and Jensen models) are selected. The sensitivity coefficients of growth stage of paddy rice for both Blank and Jensen models are experimentally estimated by Mao et al. (1994)from 1998 ~ 1993. The irrigated paddy rice area of the Min-Ter reservoir is chosen as an illustrated example to estimate the economic loss for water shortfall. From the results of the contingent valuation method, it reveals a reasonable trend with water shortfall but values are underestimated. The magnitudes of economic losses for different months obtained by Blank model are higher than those values of Jensen model and Hanks model gains the smallest values. Also from the study, it is found that sensitivity coefficient of each growth stage increase as evapotranspiration value increases, and this results in increasing economic loss for the same percentage of water shortfall. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。