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題名 | 新運具運量轉移傾向模式之研究=Modeling Travelers' New Mode Diversion Propensity |
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作 者 | 呂錦隆; | 書刊名 | 國家科學委員會研究彙刊. 人文及社會科學 |
卷期 | 8:2 1998.04[民87.04] |
頁次 | 頁242-259 |
分類號 | 557.24 |
關鍵詞 | 序數數據; 依序常機模式; 敘述性偏好法; 運量轉移傾向; 轉移抗力; Ordinal data; Ordered probit model; Stated preference; Mode diversion propensity; Resistance to change; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究以高速鐵路為新運具研究對象,利用產 4 述性偏好法實地調查往來于臺 南、臺北間之旅客對高速鐵路轉移傾向之四點量表序數數據( ordinal data ),並建立以 依序常機模式為基礎之運量轉移傾向( ordered probit )模式,從事分析旅館運者對高速 鐵路之轉移乘用傾向。此外,研究內容另就轉移抗力、不同模式方法間之比較、及彈性分析 等進行討論。 本研究獲致之結果如下:1.以旅次目的與乘用運具種類對旅行成本及旅行時間進行區隔 分析之結果良好,顯示從事運量轉移傾向分析時,有必要考慮不同群體對成本及時間的變動 感受不同之影響。2.非公務旅次旅客與原乘用非飛機之旅客對高鐵之轉移傾向均較低。3.旅 運者對既定使用之運具,明顯存有不願改變之抗力,其中以乘用飛機旅客相對于其他旅客而 言,存有之轉移抗力較小。4.在相同的函數指定型式下,二元羅機(binary logit)模式雖 有較佳之預測能力,然其較難反應社經變數之影響,並且無法進一步細分轉移傾向程度,及 探討序數數據之尺度問題。5. 本研究所構建依序常機運量轉移傾向模式,具有反應運具屬 性變動之能力,顯示其具有應用於預測工作或政策分析之價值。 |
英文摘要 | This paper discussed travelers' diversion propensity of the proposed new high-speed rail (HSR). The data was collected by the stated preferences (SP) approach for the passengers traveling between Taiwan and Taipei. This paper applied ordered probit models to fit and analyze the ordered four scale data. In addition to explore travelers' mode diversion propensity. This paper also discussed the effect of resistance to change, and compared ordered probit model and logit model. The major fingdings of t is paper were as follows: (1) The results of segmentation analysis showed the travelers' trip purposes and modes used had significant effects on their mode diversion behavior. (2) The diversion propensities of non-business travelers were lower than those of business travelers. And the airline passengers had a greater diversion propensities than other mode users. (3) The resistance to change had a significant effect on travelers' diversion decision. The airline passengers had weakest resistence to change. (4 ) The predictive power of binary logit model was slightly higher than that of ordered probit model. However, it could not reflect the effects of social-economic attributes and could not deal with the ordered scale problem. (5) The mode diversion models could reflect the sensitivity of modal attributes. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。