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題 名 | Comparison of Fuzzy α-cuts Method and Monte Carlo Method in Uncertainty Analysis of Salmonid Embryo Survival=模糊α-cuts法與蒙地卡羅法之鮭魚存活率不確定性分析比較 |
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作 者 | 馬昱; 吳富春; 曾尹玢; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 47:4 2001.12[民90.12] |
頁 次 | 頁48-55 |
分類號 | 388.5 |
關鍵詞 | 不確定性分析; 模式參數; 模糊理論; 蒙地卡羅模擬; 相關性; 敏感度; Uncertainty analysis; Model parameter; Fuzzy theory; Monte Carlo simulation; Correlation; Sensitivity; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 本文針對礫石河床之鮭魚存活率進行不確定性分析。本研究採用模糊理論之α-cuts法探討模式參數之不確定性對鮭魚存活率之影響,並與蒙地卡羅模擬結果進行比較。研究結果顯示模糊理論α-cuts法因未考慮模式參數組合之機率,故計算所得之存活率分布範圍較廣,介於13~91%間,最可能存活率為80%。蒙地卡羅法模擬結果介於30~90%間,最大相對頻率發生於存活率82~83%間。本研究經由模式參數之相關性與敏感度分析結果得知產生最小存活率之參數組合屬於極不可能發生之情況,且為影響模式結果至鉅之最敏感組合,因此應加以刪除。根據此原則修改之結果具有較小之存活率分布範圍,並與蒙地卡羅模擬結果較為吻合。本研究所提出之改良式α-cuts法乃將模式參數之相關性與敏感度納入考量,不但可增進計算結果之精確度,更可提高不確定性分析之效率。 |
英文摘要 | This paper performs uncertainty analysis for salmonid embryo survival in spawning gravels. Fuzzy -cuts method is employed to investigate the uncertainty of embryo survival associated with parameter errors, and the result is compared with that of Monte Carlo simulation. The result of α-cuts method reveals a wider spread than that obtained from Monte Carlo simulation because all combinations of parameter values are considered equally possible in fuzzy calculation. The results obtained using fuzzy calculation range from 13% to 91%, with the most likely survival rate of 80%. Embryo survival rate simulated by Monte Carlo method ranges from 30% to 90%, with the maximum relative frequency occurring between 82-83%. The correlation between parameters and sensitivity analyses indicate that the combination of parameters that results in the extreme survival rate is not only very unlikely to occur but also greatly affected by the parameter errors, and thus should be eliminated. The result obtained from this modified procedure has a much smaller range of survival rate for every level of possibility and coincides better with the result of Monte Carlo simulation. The modified procedure of fuzzy method proposed in this study is based on parameter correlation and model sensitivity, which can be more accurate and effective in uncertainty analysis. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。