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題名 | 臺灣地區人口出生數量的動態模擬=The Dynamics of Birth in Taiwan: a Simulation |
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作者 | 陳寬政; | 書刊名 | 人口學刊 |
卷期 | 18 1997.06[民86.06] |
頁次 | 頁1-18 |
分類號 | 542.132 |
關鍵詞 | 人口再生; 生育步調; 堆疊與疏散; Population renewal; Fertility tempo; Piling up and thinning out; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 近年來由於學者的努力,生育步調對加入口再生的影響已漸累積為人口學的重要文獻;生育步調包括平均生育年齡及其變異兩個成份,兩者雖然在經驗上時常連結互動而變化,理論上卻可各自獨立而影響人口之再生。人口年輪的生育步調改變雖然不致於顯著改變時期生育率的趨勢或走向,對於長期趨勢週圍的時期被動與曲折卻能產生相當大的影響。在我們對於台灣地區生育率轉型的長期趨勢已有相當瞭解的條件下,對生育步調的解析與研究將能有助加我們進一步暸解此一長期趨勢之外的時期性變動,在學術上構造一個完整的生育率理論,在應用上則協助我們分析人口趨向靜態盡展時的各項問題。本文使用模擬方法檢討生育步調對出生數量的影響,雖然不見得是比較「精確」的模型,卻較擬做於人口的實際經驗,讓我們可以暸解並控制模型輸入與輸出數揮間的對應關係,深入探討穩定人口模型所不能直接掌握,只能間接推論的現象。我們特別注意台灣人口出生數列於光撞撞所呈現的一前一盤兩個峰狀分佈,其峰點距離約為廿一年,顯然關連著人口再生的「記憶與遺忘」過程。1950年代生育峰期出生的人口於1970年代開始生育子女,視其生育率與生育步調而定,以其自有的形式複製其自身出土時所表現的數到形狀,乃有1970年代末期的第二控起伏;由於我們的基礎模擬數列涵蘊著生育步調加快與加緊的事實,第二波起伏的長度乃比第一波要來得短一點,峰度也陡一點,而肚一現象乃穩定人口模型的靜態比較所不能宜接樟腫的現象。我們的分析也指出第三波起伏於1990年代正在形成中,由於生育率轉型過注重期間的堆疊作用已經消耗殆盡,而晚近台灣 地區的育齡婦女生育步調已有趨緩的跡象,暗示著第三波起伏的峰點將會相對延遲到束,而起伏幅度也會小一點的結果。 |
英文摘要 | Due to the efforts of Norman Ryder, the influence of fertility tempo on the population renewal process is now well-known to the demographers. The fertility tempo as formulated is composed of at least two parts: mean age of childbearing and variation in the age of childbearing. Empirlcally the two parts might be highly correlated in affecting the quantity of birth, theoretically the two parts can have distinct effects on the birth. By manipulating the distribution of age-specific fertilities, this paper simulates and examines the changes in the number of births in Taiwan since 1905. Two humps in birth number after the 2nd World War were indentified in the baseline analysis. The first hump can be attributed to the decline in mortality since 1920 and the decline in fertility since 1951; the growth in population of childbearing age coupled with the decreasing propensity of bearing children have resulted in the growth and decline of birth during the 50’s and 60’s. The second hump was determined a compressed replication of the first one through the renewal process. As a consequence of the continuous fertility compression after the war, the second hump appears to be shorter in length and larger in amplitude than the first hump. Much of the “excess”birth can be eliminated if the variation of age-specific fertilities were held constant to allow for an uninterrupted operation of the "averaging effect". |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。