頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 傳染性疾病防治計畫之成本效益分析--美國毛豬產業個案研究=A Benefit-Cost Analysis of Animal Infectious Disease Eradication Program--The US Swine Industry Case |
---|---|
作 者 | 蔡建雄; | 書刊名 | 臺灣土地金融季刊 |
卷 期 | 34:1=131 1997.03[民86.03] |
頁 次 | 頁135-146 |
分類號 | 483.1 |
關鍵詞 | 成本; 效益; 消費者剩餘; 生產者剩餘; Cost; Benefit; Consumer surplus; Producer surplus; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 毛豬假性狂犬病可導致毛豬生產力之降低和死亡率之提高。美國農業部於民國七 十八年開始一項全國性的毛豬假性狂犬病防治計畫。本論文即由社會福利效果和政府預算支出 的角度,來分析該防治計畫之效益和成本。在此之前,尚無研究探討該防治計畫全國性之福利 效果。 對於患病養豬場比率之估計,首先假設無防治計畫之情況,有防治計畫之情況、增加百分之二 十五預算之情況或較樂觀之情況下,利用馬可夫鍊鎖過程模型來估計。其中轉換機率矩陣則由 專家調查而得。另外對於被感染與未被感染之養豬場之生產成本,則根據生物性生產特性與價 格等次級資料計算而得。對於養豬場感染率和生產成本與社會福利之關聯,則利用一線型反供 需模型來同時考慮。最後,假設反供給曲線平行移動或旋轉移動下,計算該防治計畫之福利效 果。 結果顯示,根據現行之防治計畫,毛豬假性狂犬病之感染率約為百分之十。而較樂觀之可能結 果則可使感染率降為零。根據不同的供給曲線移動之假設,消費者剩餘變動不大。反之,生產 者剩餘則對供給曲線移動之假設具有高度的敏感度。根據線型反供需曲線的假設,消費者與生 產者剩餘之分配受供需價格彈性絕對值大小影響。以本論文而言,消費者較生產者獲得更多利 益。 |
英文摘要 | The benefits and costs of the national pseudorabies (PRV) eradication program are analyzed in terms of welfare surplus and government expenditures. In a swine herd, PRV infection causes reduced productivity and high mortality, so PRV leads to substantial losses to swine producers. However, previous research did not estimate the welfare effects at the national level of the eradication program. A Markov process model was employed to predict PRV herd prevalence under four scenarios: no program, current program, increased program funding, and an optimistic scenario, using transition probability matrices estimated by an expert panel. A linear demand and supply model was developed to incorporate PRV herd prevalence and reductions in production costs from the PRV eradication program. Finally, welfare effects were calculated using a parallel supply shift and a pivotal supply shift assuming a fixed demand curve. The Markov process estimation showed that the PRV herd prevalence will increase to 10 percent under the current program scenario. From the optimistic viewpoint, PRV herd prevalence will reduce to zero by 2012. Under different supply shift assumptions, changes in consumer surplus were similar. However, changes in producer surplus were highly sensitive to the type of supply shift. Empiricaal results revealed the difficulty of eradication PRV by the current eradication program. With linear demand and supply functions, the distribution of social surpluses between consumers and producers depends on the relative values of price elasticities of demand and supply. Consumers gain more than producers from the eradication program. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。