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題 名 | 從「資訊經濟」新典範論東亞經濟變遷 |
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作 者 | 陳玉璽; | 書刊名 | 佛光人文社會學刊 |
卷 期 | 2 2002.06[民91.06] |
頁 次 | 頁241+243-260 |
分類號 | 552.3 |
關鍵詞 | 資訊經濟; 產業價值鏈; 矽週期循環; 成長衰退; 非理性過度樂觀; 創造性毀滅; 創投資本; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文論述自1997-98年亞洲金融風暴後,東亞經濟景氣大起大落的變異現象已無法以傳統經濟理論或東亞模式論來解釋,而必須建立新的解釋典範。本文所探討的新典範就是“資訊經濟”。西方的資訊經濟發軔於七十年代,至九十年代達於頂峰。本文論證東亞經濟自八十年代以來的高速成長,乃是得力於參與資訊電子產業的國際分工。此一論點與克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)所謂東亞高成長是來自“要素驅動”的說法大相逕庭。本文指出東亞經濟的根本問題並不在於勞力、資本等生產要素的大量投入,一如克氏等人所宣稱者,而在於高科技產業過度偏重資訊電子產業,而後者又過度依賴美國市場。 本文應用半導體周期循環理論,論析1996-98年的半導體景氣衰退期雖然不是肇致金融風暴的直接原因,但郤加重東亞出口困難,從而加重金融及全盤經濟危機的嚴重程度;1999-2000年的戲劇性經濟復甦和2000年下半年到目前的經濟衰退,更分別與半導體景氣周期循環的上升期及下降期完全吻合,由此可以論證東亞經濟景氣的榮枯變化與西方資訊經濟密切相關,並且確立資訊經濟作為解釋東亞經濟變遷的新典範。 |
英文摘要 | This paper argues that the sudden boom and bust in East Asia's economic performance since the financial turmoil of 1997-98 cannot be explained by conventional economic theory or the East Asian model theory, and that a brand-new explanatory paradigm is in order. The new paradigm that this paper explores is the paradigm of "information economy." The information economy in the West started in the 1970s and peaked at the end of the 1990s. This paper demonstrates that the high growth of the East economy since the 1980s is attributable to its integration into the international production and market systems of IT industries. This vastly differs from Paul Krugman's argument that the region's high growth is "input-driven." Rather than blame the massive injection of labor and capital without technological innovation and efficiency, as Krugman and his associates do, this paper points to the lopsided development of IT industries and their over-dependence on the U.S. market as the root cause of economic upheaval in the region. Using the silicon cycle theory, this paper argues that the downside of the worldwide semiconductor cycle during 1996-98 had aggravated the financial turmoil by causing difficulty to East Asia's export trade. It further reveals that the region's dramatic recovery of 1999-2000 and the downturn since the second half of 2000 coincide respectively with the upside and downside of the silicon cycle. The boom and bust of the regional economy is thus seen as closely linked to the information economy in the West, and a new paradigm based on information economy is established to explain the economic changes in East Asia. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。