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題名 | 臺灣地區跨坐式機車市場供需函數估計與政策效果模擬=Estimation of the Demand-Supply Function and Simulation Study of the Policy Effect on the Real-Motorcycle Market in Taiwan |
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作者 | 蕭志同; 曹壽民; Hsiao, Chih-tung; Tsaur, Show-min; |
期刊 | 中國統計學報 |
出版日期 | 19980300 |
卷期 | 36:1 1998.03[民87.03] |
頁次 | 頁1-27 |
分類號 | 484.31 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 價格不對稱性; 供需函數; 動態模擬; 失衡; 政策效果; Asymmetry; Demand-supply function; Dynamic simulation; Disequilibrium; Policy effect; |
中文摘要 | 本文以跨坐式機車(俗稱武車)市場為研究對象,使用失衡聯立供需模型及民國76 年1月到81年12月共計六年(計72期)之月資料,以二段最小平方法估計,建立跨坐式 機車(俗稱武車)市場之供需函數,並對政策效果作動態模擬。 研究第一個發現是台灣地區跨坐式機車市場之價格向上、向下調整速度具有不對稱性 (asymmetrical),並且時常存在著超額需求或超額供給;原因是價格機能無法充分發揮。第 二個發現是市場集中度很高。第三個發現是市場間進行著激烈的非價格競爭,例如數量競爭, 廣告競爭與產品差異化等品質、促銷競爭。第四個發現是市場銷售量呈現明顯的季節波動, 而且政策效果顯著。綜合而言在觀察區間:跨坐式機車市場的供需情況是處於失衡的狀態。 |
英文摘要 | In this article, we study the real-motorcycle market in Taiwan. The disequilibrium demand- supply model and the monthly data from January 1987 to December 1992 are used. The two-stage least square method is applied to establish the demand-supply function of the real-motorcycle. The policy effect on the real-motorcycle market is studied by dynamic simulation. The following facts are found. The pace of the price adjustment (up or down) in the real-motorcycle market is asymmetry. Since the price function does not work, it often exists excess demand and excess supply in the market. The market is occupied by only a few firms. There is too much non-price competition in the market, such as quantity competition and advertisement competition. The sales volumes in the market show significant seasonal fluctuations. The policy effect is remarkable. In sum up, during the observation period, the amount of the demand and that of the supply in the real-motorcycle market is disequilibrium. |
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