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題名 | 規限藥品生產限額的測定= |
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作者 | 莊易; |
期刊 | 中國統計學報 |
出版日期 | 19950600 |
卷期 | 33:2 1995.06[民84.06] |
頁次 | 頁235-247 |
分類號 | 412.24 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 自我迴歸移動平均混合模式; 規限藥品; 自我相關係數; Schedule II drugs; ARIMA model; Autocorrelations; Seasonality; Outlier; |
中文摘要 | 自1971年,美國國會修訂聯邦藥品濫用防止及控制法案 (The Comprehenisive Drug Abuse Prevention and Control Act) 以來,具有醫藥功效但有強烈神經中樞傷害性的藥物都在聯邦主產控制之下。每年的限產名額是由聯邦食品藥物管理局(Food and Drug Administation,簡稱FDA) 經過統計分析需求資料而決定o每年累積而成的藥品月用量時間序列趕過ARIMA模式測定之後,利用測定的模型做成每年需求量的預測,然後聯邦藥品執行局 (Federal Drug Enforcement Agency) 即根據此一預測,核定生產量分配。由於預測量及生產量的實際符合,顯示ARIMA模式適合分析及預測替限藥品的需求量。 |
英文摘要 | Under the Comprehensive Drug Abuse Prevention and Control Act of 1970, all drugs in Schedule II (those with some accepted medical use but have a high abuse potential with severe psychotic or physical dependence liability) are subject to manufacturing quotas as well as to special prescription restrictions limiting their dispensing. DEA (The Drug Enforcement Agency) was formed primary for the enactment of the federal law. The law also mandate that FDA (The Food and Drug Administration) be the federal agency responsible for providing the DEA each year with the forecast medical uses of the Schedule II drugs. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of ARIMA procedure in identify the usage time series model. Based on the estimated model, the usage of the future years forecasted and served as the base for the DEA. quota. |
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