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題名 | 線性擾動響應模式之研究及其於水文預測上之應用 |
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作者姓名(中文) | 王如意; 林書慶; 李如晃; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 40:4 1994.12[民83.12] |
頁次 | 頁7-27 |
分類號 | 351.8 |
關鍵詞 | 響應函數; 線性擾動響應模式; 時序均值; 增益因子; 羅森布洛克優選法; 單輸入-單輸出模式; 多輸入-單輸出模式; Response function; Linear perturbation response modle; Seasonal means; Gain factor; Rosenbrock's optimization approach; Single input-single output model; Multiple input-single output model; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究係以響應函數為學理基礎, 進而建立一線性擾動響應式(linear perturbation response model),並探討集水區內雨量及流量長時期輸入與輸出間之關係,以供水資源規劃與應用之參考。線性擾動響應模式係以歷史時序 均值(seasonal means)為長期水文序列之趨勢,並應用傅立葉級數研析其週期性,評估模式中擾動因子之權重。本研究針對線性擾動響應模式之建立、響應函數參數之率定及水資源推估等三方面分別予以研析及探討。 模式建立過程中,增益因子(gain factor)及反應擾動變化強度之特性,並以羅森布洛克優選法率定其最佳之參數值。最後,根據機率觀念,利用轉移機率矩陣權重關係,降低長時期降雨之不確定性,以獲得較可靠之水資源預測。 本研究以八掌溪流域及曾文溪流域為研究區域,分別建立以日月為演算時距之單輸入-單輸出模式及多輸入-單輸出模式,並驗證線性擾動響應模式應用於臺灣集水區水文推估之適用程度。 |
英文摘要 | The main purpose of this study is to set up a linear perturbation response model for the investigation of the long-term trend o hydrological time series. The function of the model is to find out the relationship between inputs and outputs of a project river basin. In this study the long-term trend of the hydrological time series is based on the seasonal means which can be regarded as the basis of the model perturbation. After the modifications, the model can improve the simulation accuracy of hydrological phenomena. Three research scopes of the study can be listed as the building of linear perturbation response model, determination of the parameters of the response function, and estimation of water resources. The model can be used as a reference for the management and application of the water resources. In the process of modeling, gain factor represents the characteristics of the intensity in the perturbation changes. In determining the parameters of response function, Rosen rock's optimization approach is used to avoid mistakes and save time, and the optimum parameters can be found precisely and easily. According to the weighting relationship of the transfer probability matrix, more reliable forecasting results in water resources can finally be achieved by determining the probability of the long-term rainfall in the project river basin. To verify the appropriation of the models adopted, Pa-chang River Basin and Tseng-wen River Basin are chosen as the verification areas. Monthly and daily data are used as two different time periods in the linear perturbation response model. Single input-single output model and multiple input-single output model are regarded as two different categories of the proposed linear perturbation response model. Adequate conditions of the model applied in river basins of Taiwan area are also suggested. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。