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題名 | 微分水文灰色模式之研究與應用 |
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作者姓名(中文) | 王如意; 莊文南; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 39:3 1993.09[民82.09] |
頁次 | 頁67-86 |
分類號 | 443.1 |
關鍵詞 | 水文; 灰色模式; 微分; 灰色系統; 降雨--逕流模式; 參數優選法; 移動平均法; GM(1,1)法; 即時預報; Grey system; Rainfall-runoff model; Method fo parameter optimization; Moving average method; Grey model(1,1); Real time forecasting; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究之目的係利用灰色系統理論以探討水文灰色模式之架構及其在逕流預測上之應用。文中提出一微分水文灰色模式(簡稱DHGM模式),其特色為在一般水文信息不完全條件下可以建立降雨-逕流模式,並處理灰參數之識別,進而發展至流量預測。本研究主要著重於:(1)水文灰色系統模式化、(2)灰參數之檢定及(3)逕流過程之灰色預測等三層次之研析。 文中首先以灰色系統理論建立微分水文灰色模式。模式建立後,再以合適之優選方法檢定DHGM模式中之參數值,並配合實測資料,作為模式驗證之憑藉。由演算結果顯示模式具有良好之精確性,足可證實微分水文灰色模式之適用性,且經參數優選後所得歷線,較由參數初始值所得者,具有顯著之改善現象,可知虎克-傑偉斯優選法對模式精確度具有良好之提升功能。能進一步將模式應用於流量預測,引用移動平均法及GM (1.1)法來預報降雨量。由降雨量之預測至逕流量模擬,可建立一逐時預報之水文系統。 為檢證模式之合適性,本研究以曾文溪流域為驗證區。依據地形特性,劃分為曾文水庫集水區與曾文溪流域下游平原區。經以各分區作為模式驗證之憑據,由其結果顯示本模式具有良好之相關性與精確度。因此,本研究中理論演繹方式及模擬結果,可提供本省流域水資源利用、集水區經營及水庫防洪運轉等規劃設計之參考與應用。 |
英文摘要 | The purpose of this study focuses on the model-building problem of hydrologic grey system and runoff forecasting, using ideas of the grey system theory. The differential hydrologic grey model (abbreviately as DHGM) has firstly been applied, which can not only describe the imperfection of hydrologic information in the model building but can also provide new approaches to dealing with the non-unique parameter identification and the uncertainty of runoff forecasting. The major contents of this study involved are of the following three aspects: (1) the modeling of hydrologic grey system,(2) the grey parameters identification and (3) the grey forecasting of runoff procedure. First of all, the differential hydrologic grey model by applied grey system theory was adopted in this study. After the rainfall-runoff model was established, parameters of DHGM model was calibrated in sequence by using the optimization algorithm. Furthermore, runoff model was verified by the observed data. Results showed that the parameters of DHGM model can be systematically estimated, leading to better model performances. In order to apply the model in runoff forecasting, moving average method and GM(1,1) method were finally adopted to link the rainfall and runoff processes and construct a real-time on-line forecasting model. In order to verify the appropriation of the model, the Tseng-Wen River Basin was chosen as a verification area. According to the topographic characteristics, two study zones were divided as the upstream watershed of Tseng-Wen Reservoir and the downstream plain zone of Tseng-Wen, Chi, respectively. After verification, good correlation and accuracy in model analysis can be proved. Therefore, the deductive approach and simulated result of this research can provide references and applications to the planning of water resources utilization, the management of watershed and the reservoir operation for flood prevention of basins in Taiwan. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。