頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 產業別景氣指標之研析--以電子零組件產業為例=A Study on Leading Indicators of the Electronic Parts and Component Manufacturing Industry |
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作 者 | 陳劍虹; | 書刊名 | 經濟研究. 國家發展委員會經濟發展處 |
卷 期 | 24 2024.03[民113.03] |
頁 次 | 頁(2)1-(2)27 |
分類號 | 484.5 |
關鍵詞 | 電子零組件製造業; 景氣循環; 景氣指標; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 我國電子零組件製造業位居全球供應鏈關鍵地位,尤其,台灣晶圓代工產能位居全球第一,先進製程技術領先全球,為台灣經濟成長主要來源之一,故掌握我國電子零組件製造業景氣動向,有助於預先研判我國景氣走勢變化。 研究結果顯示,美國製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)、美國費城半導體股價指數、中國製造業採購經理人指數、台灣製造業採購經理人指數-新增訂單指數、台灣半導體類股價指數、台灣電子零組件製造業產量勞動生產力指數等6條構成項目,編製合成台灣電子零組件製造業的景氣領先指標,平均領先高峰2個月,領先谷底為0個月,整體平均領先峰谷為1個月,與景氣基準數列(電子零組件製造業生產指數)最強相關性領先期數為2個月,相關係數達0.85,整體而言,電子零組件製造業領先指標的領先性表現良好。 |
英文摘要 | The electronic parts and component manufacturing industry in our country holds a crucial position in the global supply chain. Particularly, Taiwan's semiconductor foundry capacity ranks first globally, and its advanced manufacturing processes lead the world. This industry constitutes a significant source of economic growth for Taiwan. Understanding the trends in the electronic parts and component manufacturing sector helps in anticipating changes in our country's economic outlook. The empirical result of this study is the preliminary selection of six components for the electronic parts and component manufacturing industry leading indicator, namely the U.S. PMI, the PHLX Semiconductor sector Index, China's PMI, Taiwan's PMI - New Orders, Taiwan's Semiconductor Sector Stock Index, and Taiwan's Electronic Component Manufacturing Labor Productivity Index. The leading indicators performs well, showing a lead of 2 months at peak, a lead of 0 months at troughs and a lead of 1 months at whole on average in the electronic parts and component manufacturing industry business cycle, with a highest correlation coefficient of 0.85, and a lead of 2 months at the best correlation with the reference series (the electronic parts and component manufacturing Production Index). |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。