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題名 | 運用系統動態模型評估臺灣液化天然氣安全存量風險=Appraise the Risk for the Safety Stock of LNG in Taiwan Using System Dynamic Model |
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作者 | 周桂蘭; 周桂蘭; | 書刊名 | 臺灣鑛業 |
卷期 | 71:4 2019.12[民108.12] |
頁次 | 頁1-15 |
分類號 | 457.8 |
關鍵詞 | 液化天然氣; 能源安全; 安全存量; 系統動態學; Liquefied natural gas; Energy security; Safety stock; System dynamics; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 天然氣在能源轉型過程中的角色愈來愈重要,特別在電力部門,不僅需要支援再生能源發電不穩定性的電力輔助調度,在空氣污染嚴重時,更扮演「減煤增氣」的角色,以維護空氣品質穩定。本研究建立天然氣的系統動態模型,嘗試以「系統化」的概念,辨識能源轉型過程中,相關的風險影響因子與因果關係互動關聯,評估政策實施的風險影響程度,進而提出風險策略分析。本研究經過系統化評估結果顯示:LNG安全存量政策實施後,可連結性(Accessibility)風險及可負擔(Affordability)風險的整體風險指標呈現下降趨勢。顯示實施LNG安全存量對我國能源安全有正面的整體效益。本研究結果提出3項建議,供後續研究參考:(1)安全存量規劃應考量存貨管理的成本有效原則;(2)掌握LNG多元化供應來源,降低因地緣政治因素產生的電力價格波動影響;(3)順應國際天然氣市場的彈性機制,適時調整天然氣長期及短期合約的彈性組合,有助於降低天然氣安全存量產生的可負擔風險。 |
英文摘要 | The role of natural gas in the process of energy transformation is becoming more and more important. In the power sector, natural gas not only assists the dispatch of variable renewable power but also maintains the stability air quality when air pollution is severe by increasing gas in place of coal. This study established a system dynamic model of natural gas which is used to assess policy impact and strategy analysis by identifying the relevant causal relationships of risk-influencing factors in the energy transformation. The systematic evaluation results of this study revealed that the overall risk indicator with availability and affordability showed a downward trend after implementing the LNG safety inventory policy, which presented the positive effect on Taiwan's energy security. Therefore, this study proposes three recommendations for further research. First, the plan of safety stock should consider the cost-effective principle of inventory management. Second, diversifying the LNG supply source to reduce the fluctuations of electricity prices due to geopolitical factors. Third, adapting to the flexible mechanism of the international natural gas market and increasing the flexible portfolio of long-term and short-term contracts of natural gas will be help to reduce the risk of affordable from natural gas security stocks. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。