頁籤選單縮合
題名 | The Impact of Political Dynamics and Major Economic Agreement on Taiwan's Trade Flow=政治動態與經濟協議對臺灣貿易流動的影響 |
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作者 | 黃健兒; 王國鳳; Huang, Chien-ern; Wang, Kuo-feng; |
期刊 | 全球商業經營管理學報 |
出版日期 | 20190900 |
卷期 | 11 2019.09[民108.09] |
頁次 | 頁33-44 |
分類號 | 558.52 |
語文 | eng |
關鍵詞 | 政治動態; 政黨替換; 市場規模; 貿易流量; ECFA; Political dynamics; Political party replacement; Market size; Trade flow; |
中文摘要 | 本研究試圖分析政治動態和台灣主要經濟協議ECFA對台灣出口的影響。本研究選擇台灣2008年和2016年總統選舉政黨替換之影響因素作為政治動態的分析因素。本研究探討兩項研究主題:第一,探究政治動態和市場規模對台灣主要出口國貿易效果的影響;第二,探究政治動態,ECFA和市場規模對台灣八大產業對中國出口的影響。估計表明台灣的經濟增長在很大程度上取決於對中國和東盟的出口,但中國經濟的持續增長可能對台灣的出口產生負面影響。2008年政治動態對台灣主要出口國以及台灣八大產業對中國出口的影響並不大。2016年政治動態對台灣主要出口國的影響顯示出對中國和東盟有著負向和顯著效果,而對台灣八大產業對中國出口顯示出負向效果,但並不顯著。ECFA顯示出對台灣八大產業對中國出口有著負向和顯著效果。於估計顯示,ECFA似乎並未促進對台灣出口貿易的增長。本研究除貢獻於以政治動態和經濟協議對出口貿易流動影響之分析外,亦提供這些因素是否會影響產業對外擴張活動的方向的涵義。 |
英文摘要 | This study attempts to analyze the impact of political dynamics and Taiwan's major economic agreement "ECFA" on Taiwan's exports. This study selects the influencing factors of political party replacement (PPR) in Taiwan's 2008 and 2016 presidential election as an analysis factor of political dynamics. This study explores two research subjects: First, the impact of PPR and market size on the trade effect of Taiwan's major exporting countries; Second, the impact of PPR, ECFA and market size on Taiwan's eight major industries' exports to China. Estimates indicate that Taiwan's economic growth depends to a large extent on exports to China and ASEAN, but the continued growth of China's economy may have a negative impact on Taiwan's exports. The effect of PPR in 2008 on Taiwan's major exporting countries and Taiwan's eight major industries' exports to China are not significant mostly. The effect of PPR in 2016 on Taiwan's major exporting countries show the negative and significant effects on China and ASEAN, while on Taiwan's eight major industries' exports to China show the negative effects but not significant mostly. The ECFA shows the negative and significant effects on the Taiwan's eight major industries' exports to China mostly. The estimates show that ECFA does not seem to promote the growth of Taiwan's export trade. In addition to contributing to the analysis of the impact of political dynamics and economic agreement on export trade flows, this study also provides the implications of whether these factors influence the direction of the industries' foreign expansion activities. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。