頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 南投縣仁愛鄉崩塌特性分析及崩塌風險模式建構=Analysis of the Landslide Characteristic and Building the Landslide Risk Model for Renai Township, Nantou |
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作者 | 吳俊鋐; 黃均臺; 吳亭燁; | 書刊名 | 中華水土保持學報 |
卷期 | 49:3 2018.09[民107.09] |
頁次 | 頁154-166 |
分類號 | 434.273 |
關鍵詞 | 崩塌特性; 崩塌潛勢模式; 崩塌風險模式; 崩塌重現機率; Landslide characteristic; Landslide susceptibility model; Landslide risk model; Landslide recurrence probability; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究以南投縣仁愛鄉在2009年莫拉克颱風後崩塌目錄,建構仁愛鄉內之崩塌潛勢評估模式及風險模式。仁愛鄉在2009年莫拉克颱風後之崩塌案例,有57.0%位於下邊坡及20.5%位於上邊坡,且崩塌規模以小規模崩塌為主。崩塌潛勢評估模式建構分別以邏輯式迴歸法及證據權重法進行,兩種方法之正確率分別為74.47%及61.92%,因此選定邏輯式迴歸法建構之崩塌潛勢評估模式,經現場比對後,該模式能預測出多數淺層崩塌,但難以適用於地下水誘發的地滑型崩塌。最後將崩塌潛勢結果結合研究區域內之建物與道路成本,套疊不同頻率年24小時累積降雨,獲得仁愛鄉在50年、100年及200年24小時累積降雨事件下,可能產生的損失風險值分別為11.8億、24.0億及38.7億元。 |
英文摘要 | The study developed landslide susceptibility and risk models based on landslide inventory collected after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Twonship, Nantou County. Approximately 57.0% of landslide cases induced by Typhoon Morakot in Renai Township were located in downslope locations, whereas 20.5% were located in upslope locations. The study created landslide susceptibility models by using logistic regression and the weight of evidence method. The accuracy of these two landslide models were 74.47% and 61.92%, respectively. The logistic regression-based landslide susceptibility model can predict most shallow landslide cases; however, it cannot predict groundwater-induced landslides. Considering the landslide susceptibility and cost of buildings and roads, landslide loss caused by 24-h accumulated rainfall with the return period of 50, 100, and 200 years were estimated to be 1.18 × 10^9, 2.40 × 10^9, and 3.87 × 10^9 dollars, respectively. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。