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題 名 | 島嶼型遊憩區遊客量推估與預測--以金門國家公園為例=Estimation and Forecast of Recreation Use in Island-recreation Site: A Case Study of Kinmen National Park |
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作 者 | 林寶秀; 林晏州; | 書刊名 | 國家公園學報 |
卷 期 | 20:1 2010.03[民99.03] |
頁 次 | 頁1-14 |
分類號 | 992.3 |
關鍵詞 | 遊客人數; 遊客人次; 遊客人日; 遊憩經營管理; Visitor number; Individual visitor number; Recreation visitor-day; Recreation management; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 遊客調查與遊客量推估是風景區管理者發展觀光計畫與行銷的重要依據,因而提升遊客數量推估的準確性是世界各地觀光經營管理單位的首要工作。本研究闡明幾個常用卻易混淆的遊客數量指標、回顧遊客數量計數與預測技術,並以金門國家公園為案例,進行島嶼型遊客數量推估與預測。於金門機場進行人員面訪,隨機抽取離境旅客,以取得遊客比例、旅次特性。分析結果顯示,搭機遊客比例為0.452、平均停留天數為3.55天;推估結果,2007年金門地區總遊客人數為331,369人、總遊客人日為1,176,360。以小三通、大三通、SARS、年期為預測變數,利用迴歸模型進行金門-台灣航空需求預測;預測結果2011年,金門機場載運旅客量將為1,777,464人;假設遊客比例在預測年期不變,2011年金門地區總遊客人數將為401,707人。 |
英文摘要 | Visitor survey and estimation provide important information for tourism plan and marketing strategy developers. Improving accuracy of visitor number estimation thus becomes a priority for recreation site management authorities. This study clarified frequently used but easily confused visitor number indices and reviewed visitor counting and forecasting techniques. A case study of island-recreation site was conducted in Kinmen National Park. In the study, the ratio of visitor to passenger and trip characteristic of visitors were obtained via personal interview of randomly-chosen departing passengers at Kinmen Airport. The analysis results indicated that the ratio of visitor to passenger was 0.452 and visitors’ duration of stay averaged 3.6 days. The total visitor number and recreation visitor-day of Kinmen were 331,369 and 1,176,360, respectively, in 2007. The regression model was used to predict air transportation demand for Kinmen-Taiwan flights, with Mini-Three-Links, Three-Links, SARS, and year as prediction variables. By 2011, Kinmen airport’s passenger volume was estimated to reach 1,777,464 persons. Assuming the ratio of visitor to passenger to be constant within the predicted period, visitor number of Kimen in 2011 was forecasted at 401,707 persons. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。