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題名 | 氣候變遷對大甲溪流域發電量之衝擊=The Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower Generation in Dajia River Basin |
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作者姓名(中文) | 周容辰; 楊道昌; 郭振民; 曾宏偉; 游保杉; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 59:3 2013.09[民102.09] |
頁次 | 頁50-70 |
分類號 | 554.57 |
關鍵詞 | 氣候變遷; 水力發電; 水庫系統; Climate change; Hydropower generation; Reservoir model; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究主要是探討氣候變遷對於未來水庫水力發電量之影響,並選定大甲溪系列電廠為研究區域,以提供未來面臨氣候變遷下水力發電量改變之因應。本研究透過A1B情境之7個全球環流模式(general circulation model)降尺度資料分析未來可能的降雨與溫度的變化,接著利用水文模式分析未來情境下之可能水庫上游入流量,再選用合適的水庫發電模式模擬大甲溪系列水庫的發電操作方式,以分析氣候變遷改變下未來水庫水力發電量的變化。本研究著眼於未來20年的變化分析,為了探討氣候繁衍資料所造成之不確定性,隨機繁衍30組未來雨量與溫度資料,以模擬氣候變遷影響下未來流量與發電量之變化,並藉由統計檢定方式分析基期與情境發電量是否有顯著的差異,結果指出大多數月份的基期與情境發電量有顯著差異。最後,根據多重模式系集平均之發電量可知,氣候變遷衝擊下將可能於枯水期(11至4月)減少約15%,而豐水期(5至10月)則平均減少約6% 。 |
英文摘要 | This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on hydropower generation on Dajia river serial hydropower plants. With the understanding of the variation of hydropower generation under climate change situation, it can provide possible power shortage information in the future. The hydrologic model and the possible variation of rainfall and temperature calculated through the general circulation model (GCM) downscaling data (7 GCMs under A1B scenario) are used to estimate the future inflows of the reservoirs. With a suitable operation rule simulation of the serial hydroelectric plants, the variation of the hydropower under climate change scenario can be estimated. In order to explore the uncertainty caused by the generating meteorological data in next twenty years, the 20-year rainfall and temperature which are generated thirty times simulate the f10w and hydropower generation. By the hypothesis testing, the future hydropower generation of mostly months have significant different when compared with baseline data. According to the results of MME data, the hydropower generation will represent a decrease of about 15% during dry season (Nov to Apr) and 6% during wet season (May to Oct.) |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。