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來源資料
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題名 | 應用灰色理論於港埠貨櫃吞吐量預測全球貿易之研究=An Application of Grey Theory to Global Trade Prediction by Port Container Throughputs |
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作者 | 盧華安; 陳秀育; 尤郁晴; | 書刊名 | 運輸計劃 |
卷期 | 41:2 2012.06[民101.06] |
頁次 | 頁113-133 |
分類號 | 557.52 |
關鍵詞 | 灰色理論; 灰關聯分析; 全球貿易出口值; 貨櫃吞吐量; Grey theory; Grey relational analysis; Global export trade value; Container throughputs; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 國際貿易為全球經濟景氣之表徵,本研究利用與全球貿易極為相關之 港埠貨櫃吞吐量,進行灰色理論預測模式之建構。首先由灰關聯分析中得 知,與全球貿易出口值之灰關聯度最高的前4 大港,分別為布萊梅港、寧 波港、新加坡港與天津港。然後利用該4 港之貨櫃吞吐量與全球貿易出口 值,進行GM(1,5)預測模式之建構。經由平均誤差百分比絕對值之評估, 預測能力可達97.97%,Theil’s U 統計量值幾近於0,顯示模式之預測效果 頗佳,經與GM(1,1)模式比較亦良好許多,此一模式應頗具參考價值。 |
英文摘要 | International trade growth is one major sign in the development of global economies. By analyzing port container traffic, this study attempts to construct prediction models of yearly global export trade value with grey theory. First, candidates among leading ports were selected using grey relational analysis: Bremen, Ningbo, Singapore and Tianjin ports were picked as each had higher grey correlations with global export trade value. Second, a GM (1. 5) model was projected in order to forecast trade values by analyzing container throughputs of these four ports. Results reveal that this model has well-forecast abilities with 97.97% of mean absolute percent error and almost zero of Theil’s U statistics. It was also better than that of GM (1.1). |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。