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題名 | Forecasting the Passenger and Cargo Volume of the Chinese Air Transport Market: A Vector Auto-Regression Model=中國航空運輸市場客、貨運輸量之向量自我迴歸預測模型 |
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作者 | 樓禎祺; 吳克; 齊學平; Lo, Chen-chi; Wu, Ko; Chi, Shyue-ping; |
期刊 | 清雲學報 |
出版日期 | 20101000 |
卷期 | 30:4 2010.10[民99.10] |
頁次 | 頁109-127 |
分類號 | 557.94 |
語文 | eng |
關鍵詞 | 計量經濟模型; 向量自我迴歸; 客運; 貨運; 中國航空運輸市場; Econometric model; Vector auto-regression; Passenger transport; Cargo transport; Chinese air transport market; |
中文摘要 | 由於以往缺乏歷史資料,預測中國空運市場規模為一未曾討論過之主題,本研究之目的在補足此一缺漏,試圖發展一組計量經濟模型作為解決方案。本研究以向量自我迴歸(VAR)為工具,針對中國航空運輸市場進行分析,研究該市場三大主要航線群(國際航線、國內航線與港澳航線)之間客、貨運輸量的互動關 係,用以建構一組預測模型。VAR 分析之實證結果指出:國際航線、國內航線、港澳航線落後一期之客運量及貨運量,對國際航線與港澳航線當期之貨運量,具有顯著之影響,因此,本研究建構之VAR (1) 模型,特別適用於「跨越邊境」航空貨運量之預測。此外,本研究並對此一模型進行驗證,結果指出,對於國際航線及國內航線,預測其未來一個月,未來兩個月及未來三個月之客運量及貨運量,均具有高度準確性;對於這些航線之運輸量,VAR (1) 模型為一精確之短期預測工具。 |
英文摘要 | Because of insufficient historical data, the topic of forecasting the scale of China’s air transport market had not been discussed in the past. This article aims to fill this gap and to develop an econometric model as a solution. We utilize Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) to analyze the interrelationship among the volume of passenger and cargo transport of China’s three major air routes: international, domestic, and Hong-Kong and Macao, and construct a model for predicting Chinese air transport market. The empirical results of VAR analysis indicate that the cargo carried volume of both international air routes and Hong-Kong and Macao air routes are significantly affected by 1-period lag of the passenger and cargo carried volume of the international, domestic and Hong-Kong and Macao air routes; the VAR (1) model constructed in this paper is particularly suitable for predicting the volume of cross-boundary cargo air routes. Besides, the final results of model verification indicate that the forecasting validity of ahead one month, two months and three months for predicting the passenger and cargo carried volume of domestic and international air routes is high, so the VAR (1) model is highly precise for short-term forecasts of these air routes. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。