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題名 | 國際貨幣制度與政府主權債務=International Monetary System and Sovereign Debt |
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作者 | 吳心琪; 官德星; Wu, Hsin-chi; Guan, De-xing; |
期刊 | 經社法制論叢 |
出版日期 | 20110100 |
卷期 | 47 2011.01[民100.01] |
頁次 | 頁43-88 |
分類號 | 561.1 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 國際貨幣制度; 金本位; 人民幣; 政府主權債務; International monetary system; Gold standard; Renminbi; Sovereign debt; |
中文摘要 | 回顧國際貨幣體系歷史可知,英鎊是 18世紀至 20世紀初國際貿易的主要貨幣,然而在歷經第一次世界大戰後,美國經濟迅速崛起,讓美元與英鎊平分主權貨幣地位,貨幣體系局勢就此改變。 1944年布雷頓森林體系後美元正式取代英鎊成為國際儲備貨幣。由於 2008年發生金融危機,全球經濟陷入嚴重衰退,再次暴露主權貨幣體系的缺失,目前美國面臨政府赤字逐年高居不下以及以信用方式印製貨幣藉此過度消費而造成美元流動性氾濫;另外歐洲希臘等諸國也面臨債務危機問題,這些情況將連帶造成幣值的不穩定,進而影響全球投資人與各國政府對主權貨幣的信心。在此同時,中國則是藉由高經濟成長的支撐,逐步推行人民幣國際化,使之長期成為國際儲備通貨。本文探討國際貨幣體系的演變並說明當前美國與南歐國家因政府赤字與對外舉債日益漸增,最終將透過發行債券或印製貨幣來融通,使該國貨幣趨向貶值。由於此貨幣體系的缺失,使人民幣國際化後將與美元、歐元相互競爭,讓國際貨幣體系朝向多元化的發展。 |
英文摘要 | The history of the international monetary system tells us that the pound sterling was the main currency of international trade from the 18th to the early 20th century. However, after World War I, the rapid rise of the US economy raised the US dollar to equal sovereign monetary status with sterling and changed the state of the international monetary system. In the 1920s, many central banks held the dollar as foreign exchange reserves, and with the signing of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, the dollar formally replaced sterling as the leading reserve currency. The financial crisis of 2008, which pitched the global economy into a severe recession, again exposed the shortcomings of the sovereign monetary system. The US is currently facing a soaring budget deficit and the welling up of US dollar liquidity caused by a sharp increase in the printing of money. At the same time, Greece and other eurozone countries are experiencing debt crises. These circumstances are destabilizing currency values and undermining the confidence of investors and governments in sovereign currencies. However, China’s achievement in maintaining a high level of economic growth has enabled it to gradually promote the internationalization of the renminbi, with sights set on establishing it as an international reserve currency in the long term. This paper is divided into two parts. The first part examines the evolution of the international monetary system from a historical perspective in order to analyze the possibility of the renminbi becoming a leading reserve currency. The second part explains how the issuance of bonds and printing of money by the US and European governments to finance their rising deficits and debts will result in the steady depreciation of their currencies. Because of the flaws in the current monetary system, the internationalization of the renminbi will make it into a rival to the dollar and the euro as a main reserve currency, shifting the development of the international monetary system toward multi-polarity. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。