查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 以類神經網路預測郵輪旅運需求之研究=Cruise Travel Demand Forecasting by Artificial Neural |
---|---|
作 者 | 陳淑娟; 郭仕堯; 古宜靈; | 書刊名 | 臺灣觀光學報 |
卷 期 | 7 2010.07[民99.07] |
頁 次 | 頁1-16 |
分類號 | 992.75 |
關鍵詞 | 郵輪; 海上客運; 預測; 倒傳遞網路; Cruise; Marine passenger; Transport; Forecast; Back-propagation network; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 郵輪旅運發展於亞洲漸次受到重視,然而其需求預測之研究至今卻仍付之闕如。需求預測對於觀光產業的決策方針影響甚鉅,唯有仰賴精確的預測工具與方法,準確預測旅遊需求,觀光產業才能做出最佳的營運決策,及早擴充人力與設備,此對於造價及營運成本均高的郵輪產業尤其重要。本研究應用類神經網路於郵輪旅運需求預測,撰寫MATLAB電腦程式,建立倒傳遞類神經網路演算模式。輸入變數經相關文獻回顧、市場分析評估及實證測試後,實證結果確認本模式可精準預測香港與台灣郵輪旅運市場。 |
英文摘要 | Cruise travel has been winning the recognition in Asian within recent years. However, researches seldom target on related subjects of forecast for cruise travel demand. Tourism related investments take certain time and huge amount of funds, especially building costly cruises, the precise forecast tool plays the essential role to help reveal the quantity of demand and make the correct decisions of operation strategy. The MATLAB program code which applies Artificial Neural Network was developed to forecast cruise travel demand. All of the input variables were collected after surveying relative literatures, market analysis and evaluation, and numerical validation. It proves that this practical tool may provide the satisfying result for Hong-Kong and Taiwan cruise demand forecast. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。