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題 名 | 多層級模糊決策支援系統應用於棒球先發投手換投需求的評估=A Multistage Fuzzy Decision Support System for Evaluating the Need to Remove the Starting Pitcher in Baseball Games |
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作 者 | 張菀珍; 葉榮木; | 書刊名 | 資訊科學應用期刊 |
卷 期 | 4:1 2008.06[民97.06] |
頁 次 | 頁59-82 |
分類號 | 312.13 |
關鍵詞 | 棒球; 專家系統; 多層級模糊推論引擎; 先發投手; Baseball; Decision support system; Multistage fuzzy inference engine; Starting pitcher; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 棒球比賽中先發投手的表現對勝負的影響很大,在各種不同的危急情況下,是否將先發投手換下場,是比賽中教練所需做的重要決策之一。因此,本文藉由棒球專家的意見及分析階層程序法(AHP)得出6個重要決策因子,建立一套用來評估棒球先發投手換投時機的模糊決策專家系統,以之輔助棒球教練做出正確的決策。評估是否要換投,需要考量的變數很多,造成專家系統過於複雜,為解決複雜度過高的問題,本文採用單層級、兩層級與三層級模糊決策支援系統進行比較,發現使用多層級的模糊決策支援系統,可降低規則的數量,使系統複雜度降低,並以美國職棒大聯盟實際的比賽內容測試此三種系統的成效,結果顯示本文提出的多層級模糊決策支援系統應用於棒球先發投手換投時機,可達87.32%的正確率,顯著高於採用單層級和兩層級模糊決策支援系統的評估成效。 |
英文摘要 | In a baseball game, the starting pitcher influences the result very much. When the scores are almost tight and the starting pitcher gets into some trouble, one of the key decisions of a manager is when to remove a starting pitcher and bring in a replacement. In this paper, a fuzzy expert system based on fuzzy reasoning and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach is proposed to help baseball managers make a good decision on removing the starting pitcher. However, there are too many variables when evaluating the need to remove the starting pitcher. To reduce the complexity of the system, single-stage, two-stage and three-stage fuzzy decision support systems are developed and their performances are compared. We find that the multistage system can reduce the fuzzy rule number. The situations happened in seven real Major League Baseball games are used to evaluate the performance of the system. The results showed that the multistage fuzzy decision support system proposed in this paper can achieve the accuracy of 87.32%. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。