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題名 | 顧客關係管理之重覆購買行為預測模式=Customer Repeat Purchases Behavior Forecasting Model of Customer Relationship Management |
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作者 | 謝汶進; 塗婉吟; Hsieh, Wen-jin; Tu, Wan-yin; |
期刊 | 行銷評論 |
出版日期 | 20080600 |
卷期 | 5:2 2008.夏[民97.夏] |
頁次 | 頁197-220 |
分類號 | 496.36 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 行銷管理; 顧客關係管理; 顧客重覆購買; 隨機模式; Marketing management; Customer relationship management; Customers repeat purchases; Stochastic model; |
中文摘要 | 在顧客關係管理(Customer Relationship Management, CRM)領域中,管理者藉由顧客相關歷史購買記錄,探討分析顧客未來的購買行爲,期能更有效率地管理顧客關係,以提升產品的擴散率與重購率,將行銷資源做最有效的配置,且擬定適當的行銷活動,替企業組織創造更大利潤,因此探討分析顧客未來可能的重覆購買行爲是企業組織制定行銷活動或經營決策的首要工作。本研究首先以實務與理論結合方式探討分析顧客重覆購買問題之架構;其次,依據上述問題的架構,以顧客基礎分析(Customer Base Analysis)建立顧客重覆購買行爲之預測模式;最後,以最大概似估計法(MLE)進行模式參數校估、模式確認與預測,並探討分析顧客未來的購買型態,以作爲擬定銷售市場中產品、訂價、通路及推廣等行銷策略之基礎。 |
英文摘要 | In Customer Relationship Management, it is important to know which customers repeat purchasing behavior and to be able predict their future purchase patterns. Therefore, in the study we develop a simple stochastic model in accord with the pattern and characteristic of customer repeat purchasing behavior to forecast the quantity. First, we discuss the structure of customers purchase problem. Second, we develop a customer repeat purchasing behavior forecasting model. Final, the study estimate the parameter by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), calculate the customer purchasing possibility by a mixture of beta-geometric distributions, and estimate the repeat purchasing possibility and quantity in Microsoft Excel. Hence, it could actually be a basis of developing efficient marketing strategy. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。