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題 名 | 統計檢定法應用於區域頻率分析之研究=Statistical Tests Applied for Regional Frequency Analysis |
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作 者 | 張斐章; 吳正吉; 王文清; | 書刊名 | 臺灣水利 |
卷 期 | 45:4=180 1997.12[民86.12] |
頁 次 | 頁45-55+23 |
分類號 | 328.63 |
關鍵詞 | 區域頻率分析; 適合度檢定; 均勻性檢定; 平均標準差法; 平均相對誤差法; Regional frequency analysis; Goodness-of-fit test; Homogeneity test; Average relative error; Average standard error; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 進行區域頻率分析時, 通常利用適合度檢定與均勻性檢定以確定區域的機率分佈 型態與均勻程度。 惟不同檢定法之檢定結果並不盡相同, 本研究以蒙地卡羅法( Monte Carol ),比較平均相對誤差法( ARE )、平均標準差法( ASE )二者鑑別率的優劣,結 果顯示 ARE 法在大部份的情況下,其鑑別率皆高於 ASE 法;尤其在小樣本(記錄年限較短 )時,ARE 法的鑑別率隨區域測站數的增加,成長的幅度較大。再則,於各機率分佈之鑑別 率差異性比較,在小樣本時 ARE 法的差異較不明顯;此現象表示,在小樣本時 ARE 法誤判 的機率小於 ASE 法。 本研究以臺灣南部地區為研究範例,進行年最大一日暴雨之區域頻率分析。首先利用多變量 的方法 - 主成份分析( Prinicipal Component Analysis )與群集分析( Cluster Analysis ),歸類分群具有相同機率分佈之降雨區域。 再針對分群的結果分別進行區域適 合度檢定與均勻性檢定。結果顯示:第 A 群和第 B 群具有 PT3 機率分佈的特性;第 C 群 和第 D 群具有 GEV 機率分佈的特性。 |
英文摘要 | In regional frequency analysis, the goodness-of-fit test and the homogeneity test are usually used to identify the probability distribution and homogeneity degree of the region, but the different methods are not always with the same reults. The Monte Carlo method has been performed to compare the distinguishing ability for the criteria of Average Relative Error (ARE) and Average Standard Error (ASE), and the results show that in most of the cases the ARE is better than the ASE. The growing rate of distingushing ability of ARE is larger than ASE when the region's sets is increased, especially when the data number is small. Comparing the distinguishing ability in probability distribution, the differences among these probability distributions for ARE are not so apparent in small smple size. It means that the misjudgment of ARE is less than ASE in small sample size. The research make an example of regional frquency analysis for annual maximum daily rainfall in southern Taiwan. The multivariate statistical methods-principal component analysis and cluster analysis have been used, in the beginning, to identify the rainfall areas with the same population distribution. The classified regions are then examined by the goodness-of-fit test and the homogeneity test. As a result, the A and B regions own the character of PT3 distribution, while the C and D regions have the character of GEV distribution. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。