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題名 | 以模糊分群方法建立地震震害推估模式--以921地震為例=A Forecast Model of Earthquake Damage Degree via Fuzzy Clustering--Case of the 921 Earthquake, Taiwan, 1999 |
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作者姓名(中文) | 紀雲曜; 李上妤; 李雅芬; | 書刊名 | 臺灣公共工程學刊 |
卷期 | 1:2 民95.04 |
頁次 | 頁33-43 |
分類號 | 548.317 |
關鍵詞 | 921地震; 震害; 模糊分群; 推估; The 921 earthquake; Earthquake damages; Fuzzy clustering; Forecast; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文整理1999年臺灣921地震時,81筆強震測站的地震最大合加速度(a)與地震延時和(t)資料,首先利用專家意見調查方法,決定強震測站的客觀代表距離,再透過地理資訊系統將空間資訊資料疊合災害分佈情形,進行測站代表距離內之區域震害分群(以921地震發生的地震震害為例,包括建築物損害、坡地破壞及液化災害),最後經由模糊分群方法,將強震測站的地震特性參數(a與t)予客觀分群,以震害分群與參數分群之關係探討,建立地震震害推估模式:L₁=0.018a+t-22.37及L₂=0.026a+t-19.36,當L₁>0時,為高度震害區域,當L₁≤0且L₂≥0時,則為中震害區域,當L₂≤0,則為低度震害區域;未來當災害地震發生時,透過強震測站所測得之地震參數計算L₁及L₂值,可預測距測站代表距離內之區域震害程度,供地震救災反應機制之參考。 |
英文摘要 | According to the data collected from the 921 earthquake in 1999 in Taiwan, the earthquake parameters including the max acceleration (a) and duration (t) obtained from 81 strong-motion instruments of Taiwan were used to perform the earthquake hazard analysis. By using the results of expert questionnaire, the reference radius of a strong-motion instrument can be determined. In this study, both the degrees of the earthquake damage in the radius of the instruments and fuzzy clusters of earthquake parameters of the instruments were developed. Thus, a forecast models expressing as: L₁=0.018a+t-22.37 and L₂=0.026a+t-19.36, were adopted to predict the ranking of earthquake damages. For any a, t by a strong-motion instrument, if L₁>0, L₁≤0 and L₂>0 and L₂≤0, then high, medium and low degree of earthquake damages occur respectively. By means of the proposed method coordinated with the earthquake parameters, the degree of earthquake damages in the radius of the instruments can then be predicted. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。