查詢結果分析
來源資料
相關文獻
- 臺灣地區結婚率、出生率、人口成長率的時間數列模式探討
- 經濟人口統計分析
- 高齡化社會宣告來臨--人民準備好了嗎﹖
- Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Coal Ash Artificial Reefs at Wan-Li, Northern Taiwan
- 記臺灣蘭科植物相新記錄種--緣毛松蘭
- 臺灣的氣候變化--氣溫和降水
- Change and Stability in the Dietary System of A Prehistoric: Coastal Population in Southern Taiwan: A Research Design
- Diurnal Vertical Distribution of Ichthyoplankton in I-Lan Bay, NE Taiwan
- 臺灣白鼻心之現況調查
- 臺灣的出生率遞降與家庭計劃
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 臺灣地區結婚率、出生率、人口成長率的時間數列模式探討=ARIMA Modeling of Birth, Marriage and Population Growth Rates in Taiwan |
---|---|
作者 | 吳柏林; 廖敏治; Wu, Berlin; Liaw, Miin-Chih; |
期刊 | 人口學刊 |
出版日期 | 19911200 |
卷期 | 14 1991.12[民80.12] |
頁次 | 頁109-132 |
分類號 | 515.01 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 結婚率; 出生率; 人口成長率; 時間數列模式; 臺灣; |
英文摘要 | Due to the rapid growth of population in Taiwan, the study of demography has always been the interest of the sociologist. Moreover, the three dynamics of indexes of population growth, birth and marriage rates have an apparent interdependent relationship, and they play an important role in the study of demography. In this paper, we will focus on these three indexes and explore in terms of the time series model. Furthrmore, the comparison and analysis will be made utilizing univariate ARIMA model, transfer function model and multivariate ARIMA model accordingly. The seasonal factor will also be considered. Lastly, the prediction will be made on the short term growth rate of these three indexes, and we will also estimate the monthly sum of population of the next two years in Taiwan. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。