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題 名 | 臺灣進口液化天然氣之安全存量分析=The Optimal Strategic Stockpiling Analysis of the Imported Liquefied Natural Gas in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 郭平欣; | 書刊名 | 農業與資源經濟 |
卷 期 | 2:1 2004.06[民93.06] |
頁 次 | 頁61-85 |
分類號 | 554.56 |
關鍵詞 | 液化天然氣; 安全存量; 戰略物資儲備; 地下儲存; Liquefied natural gas; Strategic stockpiling; Underground storage; JEL classification; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文探討臺灣進口液化天然氣的最適安全存量問題。將安全存量分成廠商為了確保供氣穩定、價格平穩等經濟理由所儲存的營運安全存量,以及政府為了確保戰爭時期不致於供給中斷、價格飆漲的戰備安全存量。影響最適戰備存量的因素,有戰備時期的長短、戰爭拖延的時間、戰爭的機率、每天的儲藏成本,戰時的配給率以長儲備物資在戰時的價值等。理論模型顯示,戰備安全存量的必要性,與營運安全存量的必要性,與營運安全存量、單位儲藏成本與預期兩岸攤牌時間成反比,與戰爭機率以及戰備安全存量的每日效益以及預期戰時使用量上限成正比。依據中油的鐵砧山天然氣儲藏地窖與LNG冷凍槽的成本資料,本文估計每一公秉的儲藏成本,得到結論是戰備存量應恐以地窖形式優先,不足處才考慮冷凍槽。依據此一結論以及成本資料,估算出我國天然氣的儲存成本函數,再依據理論模型與成本函數,推道備儲存值得做的簡單判定準則:戰時國家願意支付天然氣的評價,不得小於某一由儲藏成植與戰爭機率構成的底價。在比較多種可能性後,本文做出戰備安全儲備並不值得的結論。 |
英文摘要 | The paper investigates the optimal stockpiling problem of the imported liquefied natural gas in Taiwan. two kinds of stockpiling are considered: defense strategic stockpiling and economic stockpiling. The optimal stockpiling depends on the length of storage time, the probability to war and war span, daily storage cost, the rationing rate and the consumption value of the materials during wartime. A theoretical model shows, the necessity of the defense strategic stockpiling is inversely related to economic stockpiling, unit storage cost and the length of storage time, and positively related with probability to war, consumption value and ration during war. The storage costs are evaluated from the data of Chinese Petroleum Corporation and concludes that underground storage is cost effective than LNG. A simple criterion dived from the theoretical model and the cost function asserts that the strategic stockpiling is of worth only if the consumption value in wartime is greater than a critical value derived format he storage cost and the probability to war. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。