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題名 | 失誤樹架構之驗證--以飛航安全管理為例=Fault Tree Structure Validation--The Case of Aviation Safety Management |
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作 者 | 汪進財; 葉文健; | 書刊名 | 交通運輸 |
卷期 | 22 2003.06[民92.06] |
頁次 | 頁1-21 |
分類號 | 557.94 |
關鍵詞 | 失誤樹分析法; 模式架構驗證; 飛航安全; 風險評量; Aviation safety; Risk assessment; Fault tree analysis; Model structure validation; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 為適切管理複雜之安全系統,一個完整性且系統性的推論模式為必要之工具,失誤樹分析方法由於其清晰之圖像邏輯架構與簡易之失誤發生機率運算,而被廣泛運用於安全管理與風險評量領域之中;不過,對於模式構建之關鍵步驟—模式架構證,由於資料之缺乏,模式構建者往往略而不談,甚至被忽視而遺忘。基於失誤樹分析方法廣泛地被安全相關研究所採用,以及模式驗證對於掌握安全系統本質之重要性,所以本研究由FTA模式中事件、節線與邏輯閘等組件特性著手,了解模式架構所反映之系統意涵,接著考量研究者可得部分低層級事件資料或頂端危險事件資料的情境下,就可觀測事件數之多寡,運用單一事件逐一驗證與多項事件聯立驗證之互補特性,研提一套快速且有效的模式驗證方式,並藉由頂端事件其望發生率與變異數的推算,探討模式架構變動對頂端事件之影響,以作為可能模式架構判斷之依據。最後,透過「在起落架收起時降落」事件之虛擬數值失誤樹分析模式的實際操作,顯示本研究所提之驗證方式確實可行,而且適合作為失誤樹分析模式使用者確保模式效度的輔助工具。 |
英文摘要 | To well manage the complex system of air transportation, a comprehensive and systematic reasoning model is a must. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a graphical tool and adopted widely in the fields of aircraft design and risk management. However, due to lack of available data, model validation, a necessary process for model constructer, has been mentioned, even left behind for FTA. In considering frequent adoption of FTA in aviation safety management and importance of model validation in complex safety system, the validation of FTA with limited available data is a crucial issue worth being studies. This study begins with understanding the system content implied in FTA structure composed of events, links and logic gates. A rapid and efficient validation process combining the complement of single-event validation and multi-event validation is proposed to cope with a variety of data availability problems. By way of expected probability and variance estimation of occurrence of the top event, the influence of different model structures on the top event could be explored. Consequently, a possible structure of FTA model could be determined. In the final, FTA of “Aircraft lands with gear-up” event is illustrated by applying the proposed validation process. The demonstration reveals that the proposed process works well and is suitable for FTA validation. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。