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題 名 | 國債的結構轉型--論1980-90 年代臺灣的政府經常門與持續擴大的國債問題=Taiwan's Structures of Everyday Life 1980-1998 |
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作 者 | 裴元領; | 書刊名 | 思與言 |
卷 期 | 38:2 2000.06[民89.06] |
頁 次 | 頁1-40 |
分類號 | 564.5 |
關鍵詞 | 各級政府經常門收支及年增率; 各級政府公庫收入; 各級政府債務餘額及其成長率; 主要金融機構對政府債權; 貨幣供給年增率; 消費者物價指數年增率; 新臺幣兌美元匯率; 實際工資成長率; 出口與進口年增率; M1B; CPI; Systems; Structures; Everyday life; Differences; The synchronic and the diachronic; Periodization; Regionalization; Epistemological constructivism; Reflexive sociology; Relationism; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文從政府經常門收支出發,考察臺灣1980-90年代國家債務如 何擴大及其相關問題。由於(1)中央、省、直轄市及各縣市鄉鎮的問題 不同,我們有必要分別處理;也由於(2)引發國債擴張的原因有其歷史 背景,我們不能忽略特別是1991年以後的結構性轉變。本文認為:最 近二十年當局堅守擴大債務去推動高貨幣供給與低利率的凱因斯政策 向來不變,導致實際經濟成長率雖有提高,但卻伴隨實際工資成長率( 即扣除通貨膨脹率)下降的結果;加上新臺幣兌美元匯率走強,出口年 增率平均已落於進口年增率之後。面對全球資本主義的競爭壓力,財 經當局慣用的調節方式已面臨瓶頸,但「以債養債,借債還債」的格局 一旦成形,當局想縮減支出、擴大稅收的空間實非常有限。本文從歷史 經驗觀察,認為亞當.斯密、李嘉圖與布坎南(J. Buchanan)的警告 可能會比許多願景或理論更切中要害;只有實際分析問題癥結,二十 一世紀初臺灣的財政--經濟結構也許還有再轉型的可能。 |
英文摘要 | This dissertation is a sociological study in contemporary Taiwan as seen from a socioeconomic perspective, selecting 15 key economic indicators that represent the island's structures of everyday life for the period 1980 to 1998. Chapter 1. identifies Taiwan's five stages of economic-structural transformation by way of the per capita annual growth rates for Gross National Product and National Income. Chapter 2 adopts a diachronic expressive mode in the periodization and structural comparison of total population, production, income, and consumption, finding that an accelerating MIB annual growth rate can no longer push higher the Gross Domestic Product growth rate. For example, the average MIB growth rate in the 1980c-89 period was 21.03%, expanding a post-war record high of 51.42% in 1986, and the monetarization (MIB) of per capita consumption even exceeded 100% in 1987-88, but the average GDP growth rate was 8.15% in 1980-89 and only 6.21% in 1990-98. "Total monetary penetration throughsociety" is a consequence of the KMT's authoritative operations as well as the synchronic selection of global-local (termed "glocal") economic systems. And as the government suffers diminishing total tax revenues, the proportion of income tax to total tax revenues grows year by year. In order to address the problem of lower annual rate of tax revenues(T↓), the government has had to issue huge amounts of public bonds - outstanding public bonds totaled NT$ 1.25trillion at the end of December 1999 while real 1999 GDP was valued at NT$ 9.05 trillion-thus giving rise to a "public bonds directed state"(d↑). This tendency toward "manifest tax and latent debt" together with lower average monthly earnings growth (4.09% real growth in 1990-98) produces a complex impact on glocal economic systems. Chapter 3 adopts a synchronic expressive mode to explicate the meaning of exports, imports, current account, approved foreign investment and approved outward investment. At the same time, a close examination of the volatility of average monthly earnings per capita, average monthly income per household, rate of surplus value and (residential and commercial) land prices, confirms Taipei municipality's ascendancy over all other cities and prefectures, and indicates that social-economic development in the north of Taiwan from Taipei to Hsinchu is superior to that of the south from Taichung and Kaohsiung. Production and consumption are the two elementary concepts used to articulate the inner and outer changing conditions of Taiwan, and the average industry wage is deemed an intermediate concept or interface in the resultant explanation. That is, when the rate of surplus value, rate of profit and land price are rising in the long-term but interest rates and rate of profit/assets are moving in the opposite direction, then the average real wage growth rate (i.e. minus inflation) is effectively suppressed (g↓) by capitalists who enjoy huge profits, while simultaneously exposing improper operations about assets especially in the domestic financial sectors, which constitutes a big strike to Taiwan's whole industrial transformation. Chapter 4 concentrates on the 1990s, in particular the lower annual growth of average earnings, the rise in outstanding public bonds and the instability of tax revenues at all levels of government, and the stagnation of the export/GDP ratio and rise in the import/GDP ratio-in other words, an aging economy trapped by quick sand (i.e. unstable foundation) of globalization (GDP↓T↓g↓d ↑WE↑x↓m↑),which signals wholly new crises facing all sectors in Taiwan, both governmental and. social. No matter what in a broad or narrow sense about the "disables to economic production", slowly disorganizing families, including "higher investment means higher expenditure" is a caricature of higher educational unemployed, not only these constitute a new social structure, but also a deep challenge to 'economic rationality' and 'governmental rationality' for today. From a long-term perspective, over dependence upon China's market and a booming electronics industry will be the primary scenarios of everyday life in Taiwan at the dawn of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a more unknowledgeable, non-essentialist transformation is emerging from different kinds of payroll, income, assets among individuals and households, as well as the increasing irrelevance of strategic power blocs, nouveaux riches, grand bourgeoisie to "the irrelevant people". This double cracking of the knowing (the known/the unknown) and the real (the real / the non-real) is both problematic of Taiwan's social development and the effective moment of re-flexive sociology (Bourdieu, Beck...) grounded in everyday life. From the conceptual construction of periodization, regionalization and systematic operations, the thesis postulates that the complex, changing genetic processes of social realities can-not be substantialized or essentialized as a "thing" or similar. On the contrary, one needs to concrete time (at least chronically and structurally), space (in structural and regional differences), population (statistically), recurrent events and works happened and happening neither consciously nor completely described in Taiwan, and think relationally to those silent ruptures which lead us to an uncertain and still unknown future. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。