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題名 | 貨幣總計數組成變化與景氣循環之關聯=The Relationship between the Composition of Monetary Aggregate and Business Cycle |
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作者 | 林有志; | 書刊名 | 中州學報 |
卷期 | 17 2003.06[民92.06] |
頁次 | 頁89-112 |
分類號 | 561.18 |
關鍵詞 | 貨幣總計數; 景氣循環; 門檻估計; Monetary aggregates; Business cycle; Threshold estimation; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本篇文章主要在於從實證上檢驗央行所發佈之不同定義範圍的貨幣總計數其相對變化與景氣循環之關係。貨幣供給量M1B其內含資產的流動性較高,M2 則因含定存成份,其流動性較低。因此理論上當M2的成長率高過M1B時,可能是因大眾預期景氣將反轉或缺乏好的投資機會所導致;反之M1B的成長率大於M2則表示人們預期景氣轉趨熱絡或是將有好的投資機會。本研究搜集民國五十七年二月至九十一年四月之月資料,色括M1B、M2,景氣循環變數國內生產毛額、股價指數、工業生產指數作迴歸分析得到大致合乎推論的結果,但在非線性的門檻估計上,則先前的推論則不受到實證資料所支持。無論如何,將來在預測短期景氣循環的變動時,貨幣總計數相對變化這個指標應該要被注意。 |
英文摘要 | This paper examines the possible relationship between the Various definitions of monetary aggregate (announced by central bank) and the business cycle. While the liquidity of financial assets included in MIB were high, the liquidity of assets in M2 were low because of characteristics of time deposit. When the growth rate of M2 is higher than MIB, this could be explained by saying that people expect the future economic perspective is getting worse or lack of good opportunity of investment, so they switch their assets from MI b toward M2, and vice versa. We collected the Taiwan's data from 1968 Feb to 2002 Apr, which included M2, MIB, Gross Domestic Products, Industrial Production Index and stock index. By using regression analysis, we got the optimistic empirical results, that's the relationship between growth rate of M2 minus MIB and business cycle variables are negative, but this clear relation is not appeared in nonlinear threshold estimation. However, in the future when we want to forecast the variability of short business cycle, it should be pay more attention to the relative swing of pendulum of the monetary aggregates. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。