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題 名 | 四維資料同化週期對中央氣象局全球預報模式結果之影響=Impacts of the Update Cycle in the Global Forecast System of the Central Weather Bureau(CWB) |
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作 者 | 陳雯美; 李尚武; | 書刊名 | 氣象學報 |
卷 期 | 41:4 1997.09[民86.09] |
頁 次 | 頁281-294 |
分類號 | 328.88 |
關鍵詞 | 四維資料同化週期; 中央氣象局; 全球預報; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究探討6小時同化週期對中央氣象局全球預報模式的影響。中央氣象局全球預報模式以間歇式四維資料同化進行預報作業,同化週期為12小時,分別在0000UTC及120UTC執行客觀分析及數值預報作業,在我們的實驗中將資料同化週期縮短成6小時,增加600UTC及1800UTC的分析。由於其最初始之分析場採用目前作業之12小時同化週期的分析場,為避免二者之間的相關性,我們先維持6小時同化週期兩週後再分析其結果。不同資料同化週期在資料來源上有明顯的差異,依目前的客觀分析之資料選取方式,傳統觀測資料是12小時同化週期分析場的主要資料來源,而衛星觀測資料則是6小時同化週期在0600TC及1800UTC分析的主要資料來源,以ECMWF的分析場為校驗場,6小時同化週期的分析場有較高的距平相關,其改進在南緯40度以南尤其顯著。在預報方面,南半球的預報成效也有極為明顯的進步,在北半球的整體預報成效也有一些改進,唯東亞地區略呈負面的影響。 |
英文摘要 | The impacts of the 6 hours update cycle for the CWB's global forecast system are studied in this experiment. The intermittent four-dimensional data assimilation has been operated in the Central Weather Bureau with a 12 hours update cycle that performs the analysis at OOOOUTC and 120OUTC. We have modified the update cycle with an interval of 6 hours by performing two more analysis times at 0600 UTC and 180OUTC. The very initial field of the cold start' of this experiment was obtained from the operational 12h update cycle forecasting system. In order to reduce the effects from this initial field, We have maintained a persisent assimilation with 6 hours update cycle for two weeks as the spin-up period. Data source is a signifcant difference between these two assimilation procedures. The convetional observation dominates the source of the 12 hours update cycle's anylysis, while astellite observation is the major source of the 6 hours scheme at 060OUTC and 180OUTC. By comparing with the ECMWFs analysis, our anaylsis fields show a higher anomaly aorrelation in the 6 hours update cycle experiment. It also shows much improvement in the southern hemisphere, especially in the area south to 40°S. We also evaluate the forecast performance by comparig it with the ECMWF's analysis field. Me forecast performance shows a significant positive contribution on the southern; hemisphere by using the 6 hours update cycle experiment. It also a positive contribution to the northern. hemisphere, however; a minor negative impact was found in the east Asian region. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。